Read first → The Grow Relaunch
The Grow Turnaround, Start to Finish
The strategic context — the arithmetic of the problem, the five moves explained as a story, and how to read the math.
The Five Moves
The operational plan for the relaunch: rebuild acquisition, premiumize the spray (punted), launch the diffuser, run the retention engine, hold the line on costs and overhead. Last refreshed June 3, 2026.
| Move | Function | Timing | Leading KPI | Risk Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Rebuild acquisition | Marketing | Mike starts June 22; 90d recovery | New-customer ROAS, new-customer revenue $ | Second restructure if no movement at 60d post-Mike-start |
| 2. Premiumize the spray | Product + Ops | Punted — post-diffuser + post-aluminum | First-order CM, hero-scent uplift | Unit demand drop >25% on test → hold |
| 3. Launch the diffuser | Product / Founder | Mid-August 2026 | Refill attach rate, week-4 CVR | Week 4 CVR < 1.5% → cut paid spend |
| 4. Retention engine | Marketing | Kicked off Apr 30; revisiting June | Repeat revenue $ | No 1st-to-reorder lift by week 6 → declare structural |
| 5A. COGS discipline | Operations | Continuous | BOM coverage, shipping $/order | BOM below 85% by EoQ2 → escalate |
| 5B. G&A discipline | Leadership | Continuous | G&A vs $1.04M baseline | $50K cumulative drift by EoQ2 → cost review |
Why dollar targets, not share targets. Moves 1 and 4 each produce revenue; a share metric pits them against each other in misleading ways. We measure each on its own dollar contribution and let share fall out as a derived reporting metric.
| Move | Plan Target | Q1 2026 Actual | Q2 Partial (Apr–May) | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Rebuild acquisition | -$200–250K Meta + recovery | Meta Q1 -22% vs 2025 ($149K → $116K); CAC $41 (vs $37 in 2025) | Meta $135K (spend ramping — $60K Apr, $75K May); Meta-only CAC $46 | Spend back above 2025 pace. CAC rising with spend. Mike starts June 22 — 90-day clock starts then. |
| 2. Premiumize spray | Punted — no 2026 revenue assumption | Shopify AOV up 21% YoY ($16.43 → $19.91) | AOV holding at $19.55/line item | Price test still deferred. AOV gains from mix/bundle. |
| 3. Launch diffuser | $300–500K Yr1, mid-August 2026 | Pre-launch, production nearly complete | Pre-launch; refill machinery setup in progress | On schedule. Air freight decision pending. |
| 4. Retention engine | $1.46M → $1.80M+ repeat $ | Q1 repeat revenue $261K (61% of Shopify) | Q2 partial repeat $236K (62% of Shopify) | YTD repeat: $497K, annualizing to ~$1.19M. Trending up slightly but needs the 1st-to-reorder cliff fix to reach $1.80M. |
| 5A. COGS discipline | BOM ≥ 95%, shipping $/order down | BOM at 68.7%, cube audit not started | BOM at 78% (all) / 86% (active). Cube audit not started. | BOM improved +9pp since Q1. Still blocked on labor model for remaining gaps. Cube audit approaching EoQ2 deadline. |
| 5B. G&A discipline | ~$1.04M flat | Brian/Mary savings realized; cost review not started | G&A + Payroll through May: $333K (annualizes to ~$798K vs $1.04M baseline) | On track — run rate well under baseline, reflecting Brian/Mary savings. |
Headline risk. Shopify first-order share slid from 51% in Q1 2025 to 42% in Q1 2026. Q2 partial: 44%. Monthly trend: Jan 47% → Feb 43% → Mar 38% → Apr 46% → May 41%. The decline has stabilized but not reversed. The repeat engine is load-bearing an increasing share of the business by default, not design — because fewer new customers are entering the funnel.
Mike Hourigan starts June 22 and the 90-day new-customer recovery clock begins that day. New-customer ROAS replaces blended MER as the primary KPI. Key shifts: branded search capped, Amazon returned to $7–8K/month floor (highest-ROAS channel), retargeting capped at 15% of Meta. Canopy offboarding completes June 22 — creative library, ad account ownership, and pixel configurations must transfer before then. The Meta–Amazon halo (0.72 correlation between Meta spend and Amazon organic revenue) means true Meta ROAS is 15–20% higher than reported — factor this into any spend-cut decisions. Health messaging (ingredient comparison, formulation transparency) is the sharpest underused differentiator in creative.
Google Ads — Strategic Assessment
Grade, lift to A-grade, agency-vs-DIY decision under the Hourigan transition.
Google Ads — Full Audit
Severity-ranked findings, quick-win action list, $55–75K/year incremental revenue.
Exposure Playbook
Six-pillar founder-content cadence. Podcast guesting, written long-form, in-person speaking.
Canopy Media Brief
Media transition context from the Canopy offboarding.
Price increase ($20/$22/$24 ladder) deferred until post-diffuser launch AND post-aluminum bottle transition. The plan does not rely on spray price increase revenue in 2026 or H1 2027. When triggered: $16 → $20 on three hero scents, 90-day elasticity test before broad rollout, aluminum quotes from three vendors. Decision gate: aluminum if landed COGS delta < $2; premium PET refresh if > $2.50.
Price Test Playbook
$16 → $20 → $22 spray price ladder, 90-day elasticity test design, aluminum packaging decision gate.
Post-diffuser + post-aluminum
Insurgent Brands Reference
70+ brand-by-brand catalog — packaging, voice, retail, exit patterns. The comparable set for premiumization.
Mid-August 2026 target. Production nearly complete; refill machinery has arrived and setup is in progress. Air freight decision pending (lithium-ion battery shipping constraint). Two pre-launch items that must resolve before launch: (1) refill pricing — the subscription model's unit economics (attach rate, churn, LTV) all depend on it; (2) hardware lock-in confirmation — if generic essential oils work in the nebulizer, the 7% churn assumption and the entire subscription compounding model need revision. Subscription portal platform decision (Loop vs. Recharge) still open.
Diffuser Launch — Mid-August 2026
Diffuser hardware → proprietary refill subscription → compounding recurring revenue. Default-bias checkout (subscription pre-selected, opt-out rather than opt-in). 60-day refill cadence. DTC + Shopify first; Amazon evaluation post-launch. Target: $300–500K Year 1. Refill attach rate ≥ 40% by Week 4 is the strategic gating metric.
Flows audit kicked off April 30; revisiting June with a mini-brief approach — Dan reviews plan, generates 1–2 email briefs, hands to Katelyn. The biggest conversion cliff is post-purchase 1st-to-reorder: 25.5K recipients produced only $2K in 90 days (RPR $0.08). Target: $0.50+ RPR within 90 days. Risk gate: if 1st-to-reorder conversion doesn’t move with timing/offer changes by week 6, declare structural and revise the $1.80M target down.
Email & Retention Project
Three-phase playbook — audit, rebuild, growth. Klaviyo cost-control, $1.46M → $1.80M repeat-revenue target.
Klaviyo Flow Analysis
Flow-by-flow performance audit feeding the retention rebuild.
Each G&A commitment through 2026 must clear: “Can we do this without adding to the $1.04M baseline?” Brian/Mary labor savings (~$200K combined) are the buffer for relaunch investment, not new overhead. Run rate through May annualizes to ~$798K — on track, but the discipline has to hold through the diffuser investment cycle.
G&A Target: Hold at $1.04M
SaaS consolidation, headcount discipline, rent. Brian/Mary departures (~$200K savings) are the buffer — not a windfall. Every dollar saved goes to diffuser investment. No quarter exceeds trailing-quarter average by more than 5%.
COGS is the largest controllable cost bucket and the one most directly tied to margin improvement. Three levers: (1) cube/box size optimization attacking the $502K shipping line directly — even 5% saves ~$25K/year; (2) BOM completion push to 95% by end of Q3 — prerequisite for knowing true product-level margins; (3) raw materials ($698K, 20.6% of revenue) — negotiate supplier terms as diffuser adds volume leverage. Diffuser filling equipment evaluated under COGS discipline, not G&A.
COGS Target: 50%
Cube optimization, BOM push toward true COGS, raw material sourcing, warehouse labor model, diffuser filling equipment. BOM at 78% all / 86% active. Cube audit on top-20 SKUs approaching EoQ2 deadline — not started. Risk gate: BOM below 85% by EoQ2 → escalate.
Current: inventory-integrity refactor — Phase 0 (reconciliation invariant) shipped, Phase 1 (central inventory service) building, F-014 production-drift decision open. Dan took ownership May 2026. Three priorities: inventory integrity (event sourcing, FIFO enforcement, cycle count accuracy); labor model capture (task-time studies with Drew, cost rollup on BOMs — current blocker for Move 5A BOM push); BOM data integrity and cost visibility (reconcile Datahub product data with MRP BOM data, target full cost rollup).
MRP Refactor
Inventory-integrity track (ledger reconciliation): Phase 0 shipped, Phase 1 building, F-014 prod-drift decision open. Bullseye method + 9-layer architecture comparison. Live status on the dashboard.
Drew — Transcription & Tooling
Meeting transcript infrastructure, diarization engineering decision, agent-driven test development research.
Luis — Infrastructure
Architecture rationalization — consolidate identity (L9) and storage (L1), integrate at the seam (L5–6). First bus contract: bug log → Data Hub.
Inventory Integrity
Perpetual inventory accuracy, cycle counting discipline, stock-level reconciliation between MRP and physical warehouse. The foundation everything else builds on.
Knowledge Harvest — Before June 12
Brian departs June 12. MRP bug patterns, real BOMs, and failure modes must be captured before departure. Dan absorbs warehouse ownership; MRP automation handles routine tasks.
BOM Accuracy
49% late-MO rate traces to BOM data quality. Systematic audit of 516 BOMs, yield assumptions, UoM consistency. At 78% all products / 86% active. Labor model unblock is the remaining dependency.