Read first → The Grow Relaunch
The 2026 plan
The thesis, the arithmetic, and how to read the math. The Letter explains the why; this page is the how — owners, goals, gates, and what each move has to prove. Headline risk: Shopify first-order share (order-count) slid from 50% in Q1 2025 to 42% in Q1 2026; Q2 2026 came in at 44% — stabilized, not reversed. The repeat engine is load-bearing by default, not design.
Refreshed from DuckDB July 1, 2026 · orders through June 30
Revenue — trend vs target— company-level · YTD actual against the same months of Nikita's budget, so seasonality is priced in · detail ↓
YTD actual (Jan–Jun)
$1.25M
QB net revenue · corroborated by order data ($1.22M)
YTD budget (Jan–Jun)
$1.82M
first six months of the $4.44M budget
Gap
−$563K
actual = 69% of YTD budget · remaining to full-year target: $3.18M
Full-year target
$4.44M
Nikita's 2026 budget · breakeven floor ≈ $3.7M
Office— goals with owners, each watched as attainment vs target · 01–05
01 · AcquisitionMike ramping
| Target | $1.5M new-customer revenue · floor $1.3M · H1 $342K, pace ~$0.7M |
| Plan | new-customer ROAS is the KPI; prospecting ≥ 85% of Meta |
| Now | Meta $191K Q2 · CAC $46 · Mike wk 1: NC-ROAS 1.70→2.33, retargeting 50%→30% |
| Gate | no NC-ROAS lift 60d post-Mike (mid-Aug) → second restructure |
| + | Meta–Amazon halo (0.72 corr → true Meta ROAS +15–20%) · creative velocity 15–30 pieces/mo; video hire rate-limits scale |
02 · RetentionKatelyn · email under plan
| Target | $1.8M reorder revenue · floor $1.5M · H1 $578K, pace ~$1.16M |
| Plan | fix the 1st-to-reorder cliff — post-purchase flow rewrite is the highest-ROI email project |
| Now | post-purchase RPR $0.06 vs $0.50+ target · welcome flow performing ($1.23) |
| Gate | wk-6 no 1st-to-reorder lift → declare structural, cut the target |
| → | Email & Retention Project |
03 · Subscriptionsbuilding
| Plan | refill flywheel — recurring revenue engine; ~$1.2M 2027 refills |
| Now | platform not live, $0 subscription revenue · churn model 7% untested |
| Gate | diffuser attach ≥ 40% wk 4 · churn < 10% |
| + | Loop vs Recharge decision open (Loop ~45% cheaper) |
04 · Diffuseron schedule
| Plan | mid-August launch · $300–500K yr 1 |
| Now | production near done · refill machinery setup · air freight decision pending |
| Gate | wk-4 CVR < 1.5% → cut paid spend; attach < 25% → rework mechanic |
| + | hardware lock-in test (generic oils work → churn 7%→12%+) · refill pricing not set |
05 · Hold G&ADan on track
| Target | $912K 2026 G&A, per Nikita's budget (includes office + consultant labor) |
| Plan | every commitment clears "can we do this without adding to the base?" · Brian/Mary savings banked, not respent |
| Now | $355K Jan–May vs $399K budgeted — $44K under · annualizing ~$850K |
| Gate | $50K cumulative drift over budget → structural cost review |
Warehouse / Ops— W1–W3, separate queue
Ops gates
Brian knowledge harvestcomplete
Labor model data → unblocks BOM ≥ 85%blocker — MRP cost fields empty (Drew)
Cube audit → new box dimsblocker — not started
W1 · COGS 50off target
| Target | 50% COGS as a share of revenue (the budget implies 48.6%) |
| Now | 59.6% Jan–May (QB) · 2025 full year: 58.9% — delta ≈ +10pp |
| Plan | close the delta: BOM completion → true margins · cube audit → shipping · raw-material terms · labor via MRP |
| Gate | BOM < 85% at EoQ2 → escalate (fired for all-products) · cube audit not started by 60d → flag (fired) |
W2 · MRPbuilding
| Plan | MRP refactor — inventory integrity, labor model capture, BOM data quality + cost rollup |
| Now | Phase 0 shipped · Phase 1 building · F-014 open · MRP cost fields empty (Drew) · 516 BOMs to audit |
| Gate | BOM gate fired at EoQ2 → escalation lands here: the labor model is the blocker for W1's COGS visibility |
| → | Tech_Program.html |
W3 · Production & fulfillment overhaulDan scoping
| Plan | reorganize the warehouse, stand up the production lines, make the physical process rigorous — mirroring MRP's structure |
| Now | defining scope — separate project, no doc home yet |
| Gate | none until scope is set |
Full detail below ↓ moves 01–05 · W1–W3 · revenue detail · sequencing · risk-gate master list
Back burner— captured, off the current set
Poking at it — little activity here and there
Wholesale / Faire · +32% YoY on a small base · diffuser-anchored expansion post-Q3
Founder-led press · local TV done (June) · Q3 podcast outreach
Stored — captured for later
Subscriptions across the catalog
AI-era discoverability
SKU rationalization + candle discontinuation
Premiumize the spray · trigger: aluminum + diffuser + subscription live · health/ingredient messaging rides here
The longer game
Strategic Plan — three paths
Hold & Own · Eight-figure exit · Nine-figure breakout. The foundation being built this year serves all three; the fork is a 2027 decision. Path 3 needs a 24–36 month founder-content commitment — that call comes by end of Q3 2026. The path decision lives in the Strategic Plan (§4, §10, §11), not here.
Open the Strategic Plan →
The honest catch on the goals
H1 2026 Shopify ran $919K, down 19% YoY from the Canopy collapse. The budget target needs H2 ≈ 2.6× H1 (~$2.4M Shopify) — that is the entire relaunch bet: Mike's recovery + diffuser + holiday Q4 (the budget already puts $701K in November). Breakeven (~flat vs 2025) is the achievable floor. The altitude is set at budget.
What this plan could be wrong about — 8 counter-theses, from Plan.md
- Move 01 may need more than a function rebuild. If the new-customer collapse is structural (platform saturation + creative fatigue + agency drift compounding), a rebuilt function just produces smaller losses. Watch: whether new-customer count and CAC respond within 60 days of the Mike-led rebuild.
- The 30% repeat-rate floor may not hold for 2026 cohorts. The acquired mix has shifted with first-order share sliding to the low 40s. A 2026-cohort repeat-rate analysis is due within 90 days to confirm the floor.
- Diffuser concentration risk is real. The product hasn't been tested at scale. A weak launch week is survivable; a weak first month is not. Explicit gating on Week-4 CVR.
- The $1.80M reorder goal depends on the 1st-to-reorder cliff being executional, not structural. If customers genuinely don't want refills at the assumed cadence, the retention upside is capped. Week-6 gate is wired.
- Holding the G&A line is the hardest discipline in the plan. Every commitment looks justified in isolation; cumulative drift is the killer. Any combination adding $100–200K breaks the math.
- Hitting 50% COGS is the margin unlock. Without it, revenue growth just feeds a cost structure that doesn't improve.
- The "working but slowly" diffuser outcome has no playbook. CVR 1.8% / attach 30% clears the floor without funding the 2027 ramp. That scenario means a longer path, not a pivot — but it should be named.
- With the spray price increase punted, the breakeven path is narrower. The plan now runs entirely through diffuser revenue + overhead discipline. The January 2027 assessment must address what happens if the business is still losing money.
The moves in full — plan, mechanics, gates
01 · Acquisition — rebuild the engine
Owner: Mike Hourigan (started June 22) · Function: Marketing · 90-day recovery clock ends ~Sept 20 · Goal: $1.5M new-customer revenue
New-customer ROAS replaces blended MER as the primary KPI — blended MER hides repeat revenue and flatters a shrinking funnel. The goal that frames this move: $1.5M new-customer Shopify revenue for 2026 ($1.3M breakeven floor). At current CAC (~$46) and first-order AOV (~$60), that implies roughly 22,000–25,000 new customers for the year — the number that sizes the creative team and the spend level.
What changes
- Branded search capped (cannibalizes organic); Performance Max 30% → 40–50% of Google spend
- Amazon advertising returned to the $7–8K/month floor — highest-ROAS channel, has been starved
- Retargeting capped at 15% of Meta spend; the rest does prospecting. Mike's first week already moved this: retargeting share halved (50% → 30%), NC-ROAS 1.70 → 2.33, daily spend +66%
- Creative refresh on a 30–45 day cadence on top-spending campaigns; Shopify Collabs/influencer gets dedicated investment and better measurement
Meta–Amazon halo
2025 analysis showed a 0.72 correlation between Meta spend and Amazon organic revenue — true Meta ROAS is 15–20% higher than reported because some Meta-driven awareness converts on Amazon. Evaluate any Meta cut against cross-channel new-customer revenue, not Shopify-only attribution.
Creative velocity
At meaningful Meta spend, creative fatigue is the binding constraint — winning ads fatigue in 7–14 days. At current spend (~$50–65K/month) the need is ~15–30 new pieces/month; one video hire handles it and is the rate-limiting step (project-based hiring filter, deferred to early Q3). All creative runs through the direct-response psychology framework; the health/ingredient story is the sharpest underused differentiator — factual ingredient comparison deploys first.
Gates
- New-customer ROAS hasn't moved by 60 days post-Mike-start (mid-August) → second restructure conversation
- Weekly new-customer count −10% vs prior 4-week average, sustained 3 weeks → emergency acquisition review
- Creative output falls behind the 7–14 day fatigue cycle as spend ramps → hire before the gap costs CPA
↑ back to the board
02 · Retention — run the reorder engine
Owner: Katelyn + the email project (Dan + Claude + Katelyn) · Function: Marketing — content + lifecycle plumbing · Goal: $1.8M reorder revenue
The reorder goal is a dollar goal, not a share goal — share metrics pit acquisition and retention against each other in misleading ways. 2025 repeat revenue was $1.46M; the 2026 goal is $1.80M+ ($1.5M breakeven floor). H1 came in at $578K, annualizing to ~$1.16M — the biggest single delta in the plan and the reason this move is marked under plan.
The cliff
The single biggest conversion cliff is the post-purchase 1st-to-reorder flow: RPR $0.06 at the July 1 refresh (at plan time: ~25.5K recipients producing roughly $2K in 90 days, $0.08) against a $0.50+ target. The welcome flow performs ($1.23 RPR); the problem is nurture after first purchase. The flow rewrite is the highest-ROI email project on the board.
Flows audit priority
- Welcome Flow — keep the spine, A/B a behavioral overlay
- Browse + Cart + Checkout trio — loss-framing test against current gain-framing
- Post-Purchase 1st-to-reorder — the cliff; test a 45-day bounce-back
- Winback — scent-specific rebuild against generic
- SMS Welcome — investigate the revenue gap vs email
Gates
- Post-purchase RPR to $0.50+ within 90 days
- No 1st-to-reorder lift after timing/offer changes by week 6 → the gap is structural: surface it, reduce the reorder goal
↑ back to the board
03 · Subscriptions — the refill flywheel
Function: Marketing + Product · Proof of concept: diffuser refills · ~$1.2M 2027 refill projection at 7% churn
The diffuser refill subscription is the recurring-revenue engine the whole 2027 model leans on. Mechanics at launch: default-bias checkout (subscription pre-selected, opt out rather than opt in), 60-day refill cadence, scent selection built into the portal with seasonal rotations to mitigate scent fatigue.
Open items
- Platform decision open: Loop vs Recharge (Loop ~45% cheaper). Nothing is live and subscription revenue is $0 — every month of delay costs meaningful repeat revenue. This is the gating dependency.
- The 7% churn assumption is untested. If churn tracks above 10% through the first 90 days, the 2027 refill projection revises down (~$1.2M → ~$900K) and the spend ramp gets reassessed.
- Scent fatigue watch: refill reorder rate by cycle number. If cycle-4 retention drops below 60% of cycle-1 despite the variety options → deeper product investigation.
Gates
- Diffuser refill attach ≥ 40% by week 4; attach < 25% → re-evaluate the mechanic (default-bias, pricing, cadence)
- Churn < 10% through the first 90 days, measured against the 7% model
↑ back to the board
04 · Diffuser — the launch
Owner: Product / Founder · Mid-August 2026 target · $300–500K year 1 · DTC + Shopify first, Amazon evaluated post-launch
Production is nearly complete; refill machinery has arrived and setup is in progress. The air freight decision is pending — lithium-ion battery shipping is a constraint (DHL/UPS may be required over commercial freight forwarders). Multiple launch gates still need an owner and a date by mid-July or the August target slips.
Pre-launch validation — must resolve before launch, not after
- Refill pricing. Attach rate, churn, and LTV all depend on what the refill costs. Pricing analysis before launch.
- Hardware lock-in confirmation. Test whether the nebulizer physically requires Grow-specific formulations. If generic essential oils work, the churn assumption jumps 7% → 12%+ and the subscription compounding model needs revision before launch spend ramps.
Success metrics
- Refill subscription attach rate ≥ 40% by Week 4
- Conversion rate ≥ 1.5% on diffuser landing pages by Week 4
- First-order contribution margin on diffuser ≥ $40
Gates
- Week-4 CVR < 1.5% → cut aggressive paid spend behind the diffuser
- A conservative $300K path and an aggressive $500K+ path, explicitly gated — a weak first month is not survivable at the aggressive ramp
↑ back to the board
05 · Hold G&A
Owner: Dan · Continuous — monthly check against Nikita's budget · Target: $912K 2026 G&A
G&A is the fixed-cost base that doesn't move with units, and the discipline is different from COGS: hold the line, don't optimize per-unit. The guide is Nikita's 2026 budget: $912K of G&A, which includes office labor ($567K) and consultant labor ($148K) alongside rent, software, and the rest — so it's measured against QB G&A + payroll, apples to apples.
Through May: $355K actual vs $399K budgeted — $44K under, annualizing to ~$850K. The Brian/Mary savings (~$200K combined) are what put the run-rate under budget; they fund the relaunch investment, not new overhead.
The rule
- Every G&A commitment through 2026 must clear: "can we do this without adding to the base?" If yes, proceed. If no, re-scoping conversation before dollars commit.
- Rent, SaaS, professional services, and any new headcount all evaluated under this rule.
Gate
$50K cumulative drift over budget → structural cost review. No quarter exceeds the trailing-quarter average by more than 5%.
Note: Plan.md 5B still states a $1.04M baseline; Dan set Nikita's budget as the guide (July 1). Plan.md update pending at the quarterly refresh.
↑ back to the board
W1 · COGS 50
Function: Operations · Continuous — monthly dashboard check · Target: COGS ≤ 50% of revenue
Trend vs target
Now: 59.6% of revenue (Jan–May, QB; June expenses still posting). 2025 full year ran 58.9%, so this isn't drift — it's the standing cost structure. Target: 50%; Nikita's budget implies 48.6% ($2.16M COGS on $4.44M revenue). Delta: ~10 points of revenue. This is the margin unlock for the whole plan: without it, revenue growth just feeds a cost structure that doesn't improve.
The plan to close the delta
- BOM completion — 78% all products / 85.7% active (June; 337 of 432 total, 227 of 265 active with COGS), up from 68.7% at Q1. Not a savings lever itself, but the prerequisite: it's what makes true product-level margins visible so the other levers can be aimed. Blocked on the labor model (W2).
- Cube/box optimization — attacks the $502K shipping line directly; even 5% is ~$25K/year. Top-20 SKU audit is a named blocker: late-June deadline, not started.
- Raw materials ($698K, 20.6% of revenue) — negotiate supplier terms as the diffuser adds volume leverage.
- Warehouse labor ($651K, 19.2%) — MRP automation (W2) plus the production-process overhaul (W3) are the levers as they mature. Diffuser filling equipment is evaluated here, not under G&A.
Gate
BOM below 85% at end of Q2 → escalate. Status at the gate: active products cleared (85.7%); all-product coverage sits 7pp short at 78%, still blocked on the labor model. The block lives upstream in MRP data cleanup (W2) — escalation means resourcing that, not pushing the warehouse harder. Cube-audit flag has also fired.
↑ back to the board
W2 · MRP
Owner: Dan (since May 2026) · The MRP program: refactor, inventory integrity, labor model, BOM data quality · Full status: Tech Program dashboard
Everything MRP lives here. Four workstreams:
- Refactor / inventory integrity — event sourcing, FIFO enforcement, cycle-count accuracy, stock-level reconciliation between MRP and the physical warehouse. Phase 0 (reconciliation invariant) shipped; Phase 1 (central inventory service) building; F-014 production-drift decision open.
- Labor model capture — task-time studies with Drew, cost rollup on BOMs. The upstream blocker for W1's COGS visibility.
- BOM data quality — systematic audit of 516 BOMs: yield assumptions, UoM consistency. The 49% late-MO rate traces here. Labor model unblock is the remaining dependency.
- Cost rollup / Datahub reconciliation — the SKU join between Datahub and MRP works (93.3% match, 96.4% revenue coverage on top-30 SKUs), but MRP's
rm_cost and labor_cost fields are essentially empty — cost rollup is not yet operational and reconciliation is gated on MRP data cleanup with Drew.
The Brian knowledge harvest (MRP bug patterns, real BOMs, failure modes) is complete.
↑ back to the board
W3 · Production & fulfillment overhaul
Owner: Dan · Separate project · Status: defining scope
A physical-process counterpart to the MRP work: reorganize the warehouse, stand up the production lines, and clean up the production and fulfillment process so it is rigorous — matching or mirroring the structure MRP imposes on the data side. The software (W2) and the floor (W3) should describe the same process.
The project is being scoped. No gates until scope is set. It also needs a doc home — scope, milestones, and how it hands off to or draws on the MRP workstreams — before it carries targets on this board.
↑ back to the board
Revenue — trend vs target, detail
Company-level. The path decision does not live here — it stays in the Strategic Plan.
- How to read it. YTD actual is compared against the same months of Nikita's monthly budget (
finance_budget_monthly), so seasonality is priced in — a 69% attainment in June means something; a raw fraction of the full-year number would not, because Q4 carries the weight ($701K budgeted in November alone).
- Where we are. Jan–Jun actual: $1.25M QB net revenue (component lines, L2 filter), corroborated by order-level data at $1.22M. Jan–Jun budget: $1.82M. Gap: −$563K — actual is 69% of budget. June revenue is essentially complete ($213K QB vs $206K orders); June expenses still posting.
- Where we need to be. Full-year target $4.44M (the budget) leaves $3.18M for H2 against $2.62M budgeted — the miss so far compounds the H2 bet. Breakeven floor ≈ $3.7M (sensitive to whether marketing is treated as fixed or variable). Hitting budget lands +$225K net income; income isn't tracked separately on this board because until revenue is on target it isn't the binding number.
- Data note. Trend.md's June report quotes $1.82M as H1 actual — that figure is the H1 budget (its May $417K and June $308K match the budget's monthly figures, not QB actuals of $287K and $213K). This page supersedes it; Trend.md correction pending.
↑ back to the board
Sequencing
- April–June (done): Mike confirmed and started June 22; Canopy offboarded same day. Email project kicked off April 30. Refill machinery arrived. Video hire deferred to early Q3. BOM push blocked on labor model.
- July–August: Diffuser launch + refill subscription live (mid-August). Post-purchase flow converts spray buyers to diffuser. Video hire posted; creative velocity system stands up for the launch. Loop-vs-Recharge decision and refill pricing must close first.
- September–December: Holiday push with diffuser gift sets ($701K budgeted in November). Wholesale holiday ramp (back burner). First subscription cohort data for the 60-day churn measurement. Year-end trajectory assessment.
- January 2027: Honest break-even assessment. 90-day subscription metrics review. 2026-cohort repeat-rate analysis (verify the 30% floor still holds).
↑ back to the board
Risk gates — master list
Ten risks with dashboard surfacing rules. Canonical in Plan.md.
| Risk | Watch | Trigger |
|---|
| 1. New-customer collapse continuing | Weekly new-customer count vs prior 4-week average | −10% sustained 3 weeks → emergency acquisition review |
| 2. Diffuser concentration | Week 1–4 CVR, refill attach rate | Week-4 CVR < 1.5% → cut aggressive paid spend |
| 3. The reorder thesis | 1st-to-reorder conversion in test cohorts; quarterly repeat $ vs $1.80M | No movement by week 6 → declare structural, cut the goal |
| 4. COGS visibility gap | BOM coverage %, shipping $/order | BOM < 85% at EoQ2 → escalate (fired for all-products; active cleared); cube audit not started by 60 days → flag (fired) |
| 5. G&A drift | Monthly G&A + payroll vs Nikita's budget ($912K/yr) | $50K cumulative drift over budget → structural cost review |
| 6. Q3 cash timing squeeze | Monthly cash position, not just P&L (~$160K at July 1) | Savings slip or diffuser inventory front-loads faster → weekly cash review through Q3 (active) |
| 7. Refill lock-in | Whether the nebulizer can run generic oils | Generic oils work → churn model 7% → 12%+, revise before launch spend |
| 8. Subscription churn sensitivity | Actual monthly churn vs the 7% assumption | > 10% through first 90 days → revise 2027 projections ($1.2M → ~$900K) |
| 9. Creative output vs spend | New creative pieces per month vs Meta spend | Spend outruns the 7–14 day fatigue cycle → hire before it costs CPA |
| 10. Scent fatigue | Refill reorder rate by cycle number | Cycle-4 retention < 60% of cycle-1 despite variety → product investigation |
↑ back to the board