Forecasting — Grow Fragrance

Spring 2026 Forecast

What this is: A demand forecast for Grow's spring fragrance season (Mar 1 – May 31, 2026). Based on 2024–2025 spring sales from DuckDB. Spring 2026 is currently in-season — Linen launched as a new fragrance and is already selling well (1,083 units in first 20 days). The forecast uses the same age-decay + top-down scaling framework as Summer.

Spring 2024

11,486

First year in DuckDB

Spring 2025

16,863

+46.8% YoY

Spring 2026 (forecast)

21,670

+28.5% / +4,807 units

Fragrances

5 active

1 new (Linen) · 4 returning

📊 Historical vs Forecast by Fragrance

🧭 Fragrance Summary

Fragrance	Status	2024	2025	2026 Forecast	YoY	Notes
Linen	NEW LAUNCH	—	—	6,851	—	Year 1 launch. Estimated from avg of Cucumber Aloe Y1 (3,873) + Hibiscus Tea Y1 (2,982) × 1.066 growth. Already tracking hot: 1,083 units in first 20 days.
Wildflower Rain	YEAR 4	4,725	4,569	4,302	-5.8%	Fourth year. Observed -3.3% decay Y2→Y3; accelerated slightly for aging. Still a strong performer.
Green Tea Matcha	YEAR 3	2,761	4,273	4,017	-6.0%	Third year. Grew +54.8% Y1→Y2 (brand growth lift). Applying moderate decay for Y2→Y3.
Cucumber Aloe	YEAR 2	434	3,873	3,430	-11.4%	Second full year. First-year was a breakout (+792%); now normalizing with standard Y1→Y2 decay of -24.8%.
Hibiscus Tea	YEAR 3	2,982	3,561	2,536	-28.8%	Third year. Grew +19.4% Y1→Y2; applying -50% max decay for Y2→Y3 then top-down scaling.
2oz Packs	Fixed allocation	584	534	534	—	Discovery set. Maintained at 2025 level.

⚙️ Config needed: Spring 2026 is using estimated defaults (28.5% growth, standard decay rates). To refine: define the exact season window, confirm Linen's format matrix (currently only 5oz spray in DuckDB — car freshener? candle? packs?), set growth target, and confirm whether Agave Mint is active or retired. Edit forecasting/Spring_2026_Config.md when ready.

Summer 2026 Seasonal Forecast

What this is: A demand forecast for Grow's summer fragrance season (May 7 – Aug 22, 2026). It predicts how many units of each product to produce, based on historical sales from DuckDB and a set of business inputs (growth targets, production caps, lineup decisions). The system starts with what actually sold in prior summers, models how each fragrance's demand changes as it ages, then scales everything to hit the team's growth target. Where production is capped (e.g., Coastal Tide is being sunset), excess demand is redistributed to other fragrances.

Summer 2025 (actual)

26,802

What we sold last summer

Summer 2026 (forecast)

33,441

+24.8% / +6,639 units

Growth Target

28.5%

Team-set target · Bear 25% / Bull 30%

Fragrances

4 active

1 new · 2 returning · 1 sunsetting

📊 Historical vs Forecast by Fragrance

Gray = Summer 2024, Blue = Summer 2025 (actual), Green = Summer 2026 (forecast). Pomelo and Sea Salt Neroli were retired after 2025 — their demand is replaced by Coconut Soleil (new launch) and redistributed growth across returning fragrances.

🧭 Fragrance Summary — What's Happening and Why

Fragrance	Status	2025 Actual	2026 Forecast	Change	What's Driving This
Coconut Soleil	NEW LAUNCH	—	12,235	—	Year 1 launch. Estimated from the average of Cabana and Coconut Pineapple's first-year performance (9,014 units), scaled up by 6.6% market growth, then boosted further by top-down scaling to hit the 28.5% growth target.
Cabana	YEAR 2	9,693	10,624	+9.6%	Returning for its second year. Age model predicts -24.8% decay, but top-down scaling and Coastal Tide overflow redistribution result in +9.6% net growth.
Coconut Pineapple	YEAR 3	6,272	5,140	-18.1%	Third year, declining as newer fragrances take share. Age model applies -50% decay (framework maximum). After scaling, lands at -18.1%.
Coastal Tide	SUNSETTING	6,775	5,442	-19.7%	Final year. Every format has a hard production cap. 1,233 overflow units redistributed to other fragrances.
2oz Packs	Fixed allocation	1,855	4,000	+115.6%	1,000 units per fragrance × 4 fragrances. Set by the product team.

📋 SKU-Level Production Plan — Base Case

Fragrance	Format	2025	2026	Change	Cap	Notes
🌴 Coconut Soleil — Year 1 New Launch — 12,235 units
	5oz Spray	—	7,356	—	—	Demand-driven
	3-Wick Candle	—	879	—	—	Demand-driven
	Car Freshener	—	3,000	—	3,000	Hard cap
	2oz Packs	—	1,000	—	1,000	Fixed allocation
☀️ Cabana — Year 2 Returning — 10,624 units (+9.6%)
	5oz Spray	6,557	8,596	+31.1%	—	Demand-driven · CT overflow
	3-Wick Candle	784	1,028	+31.1%	—	Demand-driven
	2oz Packs	—	1,000	—	1,000	Fixed allocation
🥥 Coconut Pineapple — Year 3 Declining — 5,140 units (-18.1%)
	5oz Spray	4,547	3,626	-20.3%	—	Demand-driven
	6.5oz Candle	193	154	-20.2%	—	Demand-driven
	3-Wick Candle	452	360	-20.4%	—	Demand-driven
	2oz Packs	—	1,000	—	1,000	Fixed allocation
🌊 Coastal Tide — Year 5 Final Season — 5,442 units (-19.7%) — ALL CAPPED
	5oz Spray	4,785	4,000	-16.4%	4,000	Capped
	6.5oz Candle	357	98	-72.5%	98	Capped
	3-Wick Candle	346	344	-0.6%	344	Capped
	2oz Packs	—	1,000	—	1,000	Fixed allocation
GRAND TOTAL		26,802	33,441	+24.8%

🎯 Scenario Analysis

The growth rate is a team decision, not a prediction. These scenarios show how the production plan changes at different growth targets. Coastal Tide stays fixed at 5,442 regardless — every format is capped.

Scenario	Growth	Total Units	Coconut Soleil	Cabana	Coconut Pineapple	Coastal Tide
Bear (conservative)	25.0%	33,502	11,813	10,262	4,985	5,442
Base (plan)	28.5%	33,441	12,235	10,624	5,140	5,442
Bull (aggressive)	30.0%	34,843	12,416	10,779	5,207	5,442

How the Model Works

📉 Fragrance Age Decay

Fragrances lose demand as they age. The model measures YoY decline and applies that rate forward.

Cabana (Y1→Y2): based on CP's decline-24.8%

Coconut Pineapple (Y2→Y3): bounded at max-50.0%

Coastal Tide (Y4→Y5): accelerated for age-21.5%

Coconut Soleil: avg of recent launches × 1.0669,609

Rule: no fragrance can decline more than -50% per year in the model, even if the observed data is worse.

⚙️ Config & Engine

All user inputs live in one config file. Edit it, run the script, get updated numbers.

Config fileSummer_2026_Config.md

Forecast enginerun_forecast.py

Outputforecast_output.json

Methodology & User Guide →
Model Improvements Roadmap →

Fall 2026 Forecast

📋 Lineup not yet configured. Fall 2026 needs lineup decisions before forecasting: which fragrances return, any new launches, production caps, and growth target. The historical data below shows what's available. When ready, create forecasting/Fall_2026_Config.md and the engine will generate the full forecast.

Fall 2024

23,911

5 fragrances active

Fall 2025

27,770

+16.1% YoY

Fall 2026

TBD

Needs config

📊 Fall Historical — 2024 vs 2025

🧭 Fall Fragrance History

Fragrance	Launched	Fall 2024	Fall 2025	YoY	Assessment
Flannel + Leaves	2025	—	9,883	—	Breakout Y1 launch. Biggest fall fragrance immediately. Strong candidate to return.
Autumn Heirloom	2024	7,530	7,469	-0.8%	Flat Y1→Y2. Very stable — unusual for seasonals. Strong returner.
Ginger Pumpkin	2019	6,515	6,055	-7.1%	Legacy fragrance (Year 7). Slow decline — remarkable longevity. Watch for sunset point.
Forest Fern	2024	4,005	2,146	-46.4%	Sharp Y1→Y2 decline. Approaching decision point: return at reduced volume or retire?
Pear Cider	2020	3,930	1,357	-65.5%	Steep decline. Sunset candidate — may not return for 2026.
2oz Packs	—	1,931	860	-55.5%	Discovery set. Allocation decision needed for 2026.

❓ Decisions Needed for Fall 2026

1. New launch fragrance — what's the Fall 2026 new scent?

2. Retire Pear Cider? (down -65.5% YoY)

3. Forest Fern: return at reduced cap, or retire?

4. Growth target (2024→2025 was +16.1%; brand overall is ~28.5%)

5. Pack allocation — how many 2oz discovery sets?

Holiday 2026 Forecast

📋 Lineup not yet configured. Holiday 2026 needs lineup decisions before forecasting. Historical data below. When ready, create forecasting/Holiday_2026_Config.md.

Holiday 2024

20,934

8 fragrances active

Holiday 2025

26,389

+26.1% YoY

Holiday 2026

TBD

Needs config

📊 Holiday Historical — 2024 vs 2025

🧭 Holiday Fragrance History

Fragrance	Launched	Holiday 2024	Holiday 2025	YoY	Assessment
Vanilla Peppermint	2020	—	7,065	—	Returned in 2025 as the top seller. V2 candle variant added 1,140 more units. Core holiday franchise.
Pine Forest	2018	5,393	6,667	+23.6%	Legacy fragrance growing. Remarkable — one of very few seasonals with positive YoY at this age.
Snowscape	2023	5,741	5,325	-7.2%	Gentle Y1→Y2 decline. Strong performer, likely returner.
Holiday Hearth	2021	5,679	2,897	-49.0%	Steep Y3→Y4 decline. Approaching sunset territory.
Palo Santo Pine	—	1,389	1,698	+22.2%	Candle-only format. Growing — premium positioning working.
Pomelo	2023	969	795	-18.0%	Low volume, declining. Retired from summer already — likely done for holiday too.
2oz Packs	—	1,369	802	-41.4%	Discovery set. Allocation decision needed.

❓ Decisions Needed for Holiday 2026

1. New launch fragrance — what's the Holiday 2026 new scent?

2. Retire Holiday Hearth? (down -49.0% YoY)

3. Retire Pomelo? (already retired from summer)

4. Vanilla Peppermint V2 candle: separate SKU or merge?

5. Growth target (2024→2025 was +26.1%)

Classics — Year-Round Forecast

What this is: Classics are Grow's year-round fragrances — they sell every day regardless of season. Unlike seasonals, they don't have a launch-and-decay lifecycle. Instead, their demand is driven by brand growth, repeat purchases, and catalog position. 2026 new classic: Midnight Orchid.

Classics 2024

95,706

8 fragrances

Classics 2025

117,923

+23.2% YoY

Classics 2026 (forecast)

151,531

+28.5% / +33,608 units

Fragrances

9 active

1 new (Midnight Orchid) · 8 returning

📊 Classics — 2024 vs 2025 vs 2026 Forecast

🧭 Classic Fragrance Detail

Fragrance	Launched	2024	2025	YoY	2026 Est.	Notes
Woodland Sage	2023	23,782	33,938	+42.7%	40,726	Top classic. Still accelerating — brand halo + strong repeat. Applied +20% for Y3→Y4.
Blondewood	2022	30,203	27,300	-9.6%	27,300	Slight decline but still #2. Projected flat for 2026 — mature classic holding steady.
Golden Grove	2024	10,433	24,797	+137.7%	29,756	Explosive Y1→Y2 growth. Applied +20% continued momentum for Y2→Y3.
Lavender Blossom	2018	12,134	13,175	+8.6%	13,175	Legacy classic. Slow growth — projected flat. Steady baseline performer.
Bamboo	2018	10,951	8,231	-24.8%	6,585	Declining legacy. Applied -20% for continued category rotation.
Midnight Orchid	2026	—	—	—	14,489	New classic launch. Estimated from avg of recent classic Y1s (Pacific Driftwood 4,836 + Golden Grove 10,433) × brand growth. High variance — could outperform significantly.
Pacific Driftwood	2025	—	4,836	—	5,800	Y1 in 2025. Moderate volume — projected +20% Y1→Y2 (brand growth lift).
Black Currant Rose	2019	3,585	4,732	+32.0%	5,678	Surprising growth for a legacy. Applied +20% continuation.
Cedar Citrus	2022	3,738	—	—	3,738	Sold in 2024, minimal 2025 data. Projected flat at 2024 level.
2oz Packs	—	880	914	+3.9%	914	Classic discovery set. Maintained at 2025 level.
TOTAL			117,923		148,161

⚙️ Config note: Classic forecasts use a simpler model than seasonals — no season window, no age-decay curve. Instead: individual fragrance growth rates based on observed trajectory + top-down scaling to hit growth target. These numbers are directional estimates. Create forecasting/Classics_2026_Config.md to formalize inputs and run through the engine.

Discovery Packs & Multi-Packs

What this is: 2oz Discovery Sets are promotional sample packs sold across all seasons. They're fixed allocations — not demand-driven. Each season gets a set number of packs, and they function as gateway products to drive full-size purchases. Amazon also has 2-packs and 3-packs of full-size sprays.

📦 2oz Discovery Sets by Season (Shopify)

Season	2024	2025	YoY	2026 Allocation	Notes
Spring	584	534	-8.6%	534	Maintained at 2025
Summer	1,644	614	-62.6%	4,000	Summer 2026 config: 1K per fragrance × 4
Fall	1,931	860	-55.5%	TBD	Needs fall lineup config
Holiday	1,369	802	-41.4%	TBD	Needs holiday lineup config
Classics	880	914	+3.9%	914	Year-round sampler
TOTAL	6,408	3,724	-41.9%	5,448+	Partial — fall + holiday TBD

📊 Amazon Multi-Packs

Amazon sells 2-packs (8 ASINs), 3-pack mixes (9 ASINs), and a 4-pack mix (1 ASIN) of full-size 5oz sprays. These are decomposed into individual product rows in fact_orders — they don't need separate forecasting. Their demand is captured in the per-fragrance unit counts for each season. The map_amazon_packs table (62 rows) handles the decomposition mapping.