Forecasting — Grow Fragrance

Forecasting

Spring 2026 Forecast

📅 Season Timing

Last seasonFeb 3Spring 2025 · Cucumber Aloe

This seasonFeb 25Spring 2026 · Linen22 days later

🕐Linen development timeline1,083 units in first 20 days

Cumulative units by days since launch. Dashed = 2026 actual-to-date.

What this is: A demand forecast for Grow's spring fragrance lineup (Feb 25 – May 6, 2026). Covers only the 4 seasonal fragrances — not year-round sellers. Based on 2024–2025 spring sales from Datahub. Spring 2026 is currently in-season — Linen and Midnight Orchid are both new launches. The forecast uses the same age-decay + top-down scaling framework as Summer.

Note: All unit counts below are Shopify only. Amazon 2026 Q1 data (9,112 orders) is loaded in the Datahub but not yet broken out by season in this view. Amazon pack sales are decomposed into individual units in fact_orders — their seasonal contribution is captured but not separately displayed here. Re-run the forecast engine to include Amazon channel breakdown.

Spring 2024 (lineup)

4,055

Wildflower Rain only

Spring 2025 (lineup)

6,527

+60.9% YoY (CA + WR)

Spring 2026 (forecast)

8,384

+28.5% / +1,857 units

Fragrances

4 active

2 new (Linen, Midnight Orchid) · 2 returning

📊 Historical vs Forecast by Fragrance

🧭 Fragrance Summary

Fragrance	Status	2024	2025	2026 Forecast	YoY	Notes
Linen	NEW LAUNCH	—	—	2,441	—	Year 1 launch. Est. from avg of Cucumber Aloe Y1 (3,634) + Wildflower Rain Y1 (3,738) × 1.066 growth. 1,170 units in first 26 days — tracking strong.
Midnight Orchid	NEW LAUNCH	—	—	2,441	—	Year 1 launch. Same estimation method as Linen. Launched Jan 23; 436 units in spring window so far.
Cucumber Aloe	YEAR 2	—	3,785	1,920	-18.6%	Second year. Applying -18.6% decay (Wildflower Rain Y1→Y2 proxy). 465 units actual-to-date.
Wildflower Rain	YEAR 3+	4,055	3,678	1,585	-15.0%	Classic, third+ year. Applying -15.0% conservative decay. 605 units actual-to-date.

📐 Scenario Analysis

Scenario	Growth	Total Units	Context
Bear	25.0%	8,159	Conservative — floor for planning
Base	28.5%	8,384	Primary planning target
Bull	30.0%	8,485	Upside — if early-season momentum holds

📊 Prediction Intervals (Base Case)

Fragrance	Forecast	70% CI	90% CI
Linen	2,441	916 – 1,966	611 – 2,271
Midnight Orchid	2,441	916 – 1,966	611 – 2,271
Cucumber Aloe	1,920	77 – 1,763	0 – 2,253
Wildflower Rain	1,585	49 – 1,121	0 – 1,433

Intervals from pooled YoY variance across 16 fragrance transitions. Wide CIs reflect high variance in Y1→Y2 decay rates (median +17.3%, stdev 88.1pp). New launches have the widest bands.

✅ Config Status

Spring 2026 config is complete and runnable. Season window: Feb 25 – May 6. Lineup: Linen (new), Midnight Orchid (new), Cucumber Aloe (Y2), Wildflower Rain (Y3+). Growth: 28.5% base. In-season — actuals accumulating (8,302 total spring units through Mar 22, of which 2,676 are lineup fragrances). Edit forecasting/Spring_2026_Config.md to adjust.

Summer 2026 Seasonal Forecast

📅 Season Timing

Last seasonApr 15Summer 2025 · Cabana10d earlier vs '24

This seasonMay 7Summer 2026 · Coconut Soleil22 days later

🏭Production schedule alignmentWindow: May 7 – Aug 22

Cumulative units by days since launch. Solid = full seasons.

What this is: A demand forecast for Grow's summer fragrance season (May 7 – Aug 22, 2026). It predicts how many units of each product to produce, based on historical sales from Datahub and a set of business inputs (growth targets, production caps, lineup decisions). The system starts with what actually sold in prior summers, models how each fragrance's demand changes as it ages, then scales everything to hit the team's growth target. Where production is capped (e.g., Coastal Tide is being sunset), excess demand is redistributed to other fragrances.

Summer 2025 (actual)

26,802

What we sold last summer

Summer 2026 (forecast)

33,441

+24.8% / +6,639 units

Growth Target

28.5%

Team-set target · Bear 25% / Bull 30%

Fragrances

4 active

1 new · 2 returning · 1 sunsetting

📊 Historical vs Forecast by Fragrance

Gray = Summer 2024, Blue = Summer 2025 (actual), Green = Summer 2026 (forecast). Pomelo and Sea Salt Neroli were retired after 2025 — their demand is replaced by Coconut Soleil (new launch) and redistributed growth across returning fragrances.

🧭 Fragrance Summary — What's Happening and Why

Fragrance	Status	2025 Actual	2026 Forecast	Change	What's Driving This
Coconut Soleil	NEW LAUNCH	—	12,235	—	Year 1 launch. Estimated from the average of Cabana and Coconut Pineapple's first-year performance (9,014 units), scaled up by 6.6% market growth, then boosted further by top-down scaling to hit the 28.5% growth target.
Cabana	YEAR 2	9,693	10,624	+9.6%	Returning for its second year. Age model predicts -24.8% decay, but top-down scaling and Coastal Tide overflow redistribution result in +9.6% net growth.
Coconut Pineapple	YEAR 3	6,272	5,140	-18.1%	Third year, declining as newer fragrances take share. Age model applies -50% decay (framework maximum). After scaling, lands at -18.1%.
Coastal Tide	SUNSETTING	6,775	5,442	-19.7%	Final year. Every format has a hard production cap. 1,233 overflow units redistributed to other fragrances.
2oz Packs	Fixed allocation	1,855	4,000	+115.6%	1,000 units per fragrance × 4 fragrances. Set by the product team.

📋 SKU-Level Production Plan — Base Case

Convention: All counts are individual units (sprays, candles, car fresheners). 2oz Packs are counted as packs (each pack contains multiple 2oz bottles). Seasonal summary totals include pack counts alongside individual units — this will be standardized to unit-equivalent in a future update.

Fragrance	Format	2025	2026	Change	Cap	Notes
🌴 Coconut Soleil — Year 1 New Launch — 12,235 units
	5oz Spray	—	7,356	—	—	Demand-driven
	3-Wick Candle	—	879	—	—	Demand-driven
	Car Freshener	—	3,000	—	3,000	Hard cap
	2oz Packs	—	1,000	—	1,000	Fixed allocation
☀️ Cabana — Year 2 Returning — 10,624 units (+9.6%)
	5oz Spray	6,557	8,596	+31.1%	—	Demand-driven · CT overflow
	3-Wick Candle	784	1,028	+31.1%	—	Demand-driven
	2oz Packs	—	1,000	—	1,000	Fixed allocation
🥥 Coconut Pineapple — Year 3 Declining — 5,140 units (-18.1%)
	5oz Spray	4,547	3,626	-20.3%	—	Demand-driven
	6.5oz Candle	193	154	-20.2%	—	Demand-driven
	3-Wick Candle	452	360	-20.4%	—	Demand-driven
	2oz Packs	—	1,000	—	1,000	Fixed allocation
🌊 Coastal Tide — Year 5 Final Season — 5,442 units (-19.7%) — ALL CAPPED
	5oz Spray	4,785	4,000	-16.4%	4,000	Capped
	6.5oz Candle	357	98	-72.5%	98	Capped
	3-Wick Candle	346	344	-0.6%	344	Capped
	2oz Packs	—	1,000	—	1,000	Fixed allocation
GRAND TOTAL		26,802	33,441	+24.8%

🎯 Scenario Analysis

The growth rate is a team decision, not a prediction. These scenarios show how the production plan changes at different growth targets. Coastal Tide stays fixed at 5,442 regardless — every format is capped.

Scenario	Growth	Total Units	Coconut Soleil	Cabana	Coconut Pineapple	Coastal Tide
Bear (conservative)	25.0%	33,502	11,813	10,262	4,985	5,442
Base (plan)	28.5%	33,441	12,235	10,624	5,140	5,442
Bull (aggressive)	30.0%	34,843	12,416	10,779	5,207	5,442

📊 Prediction Intervals — Base Case

How much uncertainty is in these numbers? The intervals show the range of plausible outcomes based on historical variance. Wider bands = less certainty. Production planning should use the 70% CI low end as a floor.

Fragrance	Point Forecast	70% CI	90% CI	Confidence
Coconut Soleil	13,635	8,036 – 17,234	5,360 – 19,910	Moderate
Cabana	10,587	2,577 – 16,597	0 – 20,675	Wide
Coconut Pineapple	3,071	557 – 3,585	0 – 4,466	Wide
Coastal Tide	3,245	603 – 3,887	0 – 4,842	Wide (capped)
GRAND TOTAL	32,735	Fragrance-level intervals don't sum — correlation effects

Intervals computed from pooled YoY variance across all fragrances. With only 2 years of seasonal data, bands are inherently wide. Adding 2022-2023 historical data via Adzviser will tighten these significantly.

How the Model Works

📉 Fragrance Age Decay

Fragrances lose demand as they age. The model measures YoY decline and applies that rate forward.

Cabana (Y1→Y2): based on CP's decline-24.8%

Coconut Pineapple (Y2→Y3): bounded at max-50.0%

Coastal Tide (Y4→Y5): accelerated for age-21.5%

Coconut Soleil: avg of recent launches × 1.0669,609

Rule: no fragrance can decline more than -50% per year in the model, even if the observed data is worse.

⚙️ Config & Engine

All user inputs live in one config file. Edit it, run the script, get updated numbers.

Config fileSummer_2026_Config.md ▶

Season windowMay 7 – Aug 22, 2026

Growth target28.5% (bear 25% / bull 30%)

Active fragrancesCoconut Soleil (new), Cabana, Coconut Pineapple, Coastal Tide (sunset)

RetiredPomelo, Sea Salt Neroli

Decay: Cabana Y1→Y2-24.8%

Decay: CP Y2→Y3-50.0% (max)

Decay: CT Y4→Y5-21.5%

New launch estimate9,609 units (avg of Cabana + CP × 1.066)

Pack allocation4,000 (1K × 4 fragrances)

Max decay rule-50% floor

Forecast enginerun_forecast.py

Outputforecast_output.json

Season datesSeasonal_Dates_Config.md

Methodology & User Guide (see repo: forecasting/Forecast_Methodology.md)
Model Improvements Roadmap (see repo: forecasting/Forecast_Improvements.md)

Fall 2026 Forecast

📅 Season Timing

Last seasonAug 6Fall 2025 · Flannel + Leaves

This seasonAug 14 – Dec 5Fall 2026 · Santal/Fall 2026 (Y1) + 3 returningWindow extended +12 days

📌Window extended Apr 28 (Dan) — sell-through windowAug 14 – Dec 5 (113 days vs 101 prior)

Cumulative units by days since launch. Nearly identical start dates make this close to a pure calendar comparison.

What this is: A demand forecast for Grow's fall fragrance season (Aug 14 – Dec 5, 2026). Santal/Fall 2026 joins as a new launch (Tier 2 / Medium debut, placeholder name); three returners (Flannel + Leaves, Autumn Heirloom, Ginger Pumpkin). Forest Fern moved to year-round. Pear Cider retired. The model applies age-based decay to each returning fragrance's 2025 actuals (Shopify + Amazon + Faire), scales to the 11.5% growth target using elasticity weights, then sizes Santal using its raw_estimate of 7,294 units (Tier 2 / Medium hold, with -25% haircut consolidated into raw_estimate: F+L Y1 9,725 × 0.75 = 7,294). Updated April 28, 2026: Santal/Fall 2026 added; season window extended to Aug 14 – Dec 5. Updated April 29, 2026: Santal format proxy switched Cabana → Flannel + Leaves (Cabana is summer; produced 0 Car Freshener / 0 Diffuser inside the Fall window). Updated April 29 (engine fix): Corrected raw_estimate parsing — forecast engine now uses Santal's raw_estimate of 7,294 (haircut consolidated into raw_estimate) directly. Prior changes — Apr 21: Ginger Pumpkin removed from car freshener lineup (Dan); Diffuser format added for F+L, AH, and now Santal, with oil allocation equal to Car Freshener (additive). Amazon 3-pack data corrected — RS-Fall2025-5oz-3pk reattributed to AH + F+L + GP per Nikita. Growth note: The 11.5% target applies to the engine's full Fall 2025 base of 32,139 units (including retired fragrances Forest Fern and Pear Cider). The dashboard's "Fall 2025 actual" tile shows only the 4 returning lineup fragrances (29,515), and the Diffuser overlay adds 3,000 units post-engine — so the apparent YoY growth vs lineup (~38.6%) is higher than the 11.5% target. Measured against the full 2025 base (32,139 incl. retired), growth is +27.3%. This is by design, not a bug. Amazon override (Apr 29): Amazon 5oz Spray volumes synchronized at 2,092 units each for F+L, AH, and GP (3-pack sync — these sell as an equal-unit pack on Amazon). Santal excluded from Amazon. See yellow annotation box in SKU table for details and caveats. Shopify spray floors (Apr 29): Autumn Heirloom floored at 2,560, Ginger Pumpkin at 1,920 Shopify sprays. These exceed the engine's forecasts — the engine underestimates Shopify demand for declining fragrances when Amazon is modeled independently. Adds 2,072 units to grand total above engine output.

Fall 2025 (actual, corrected)

29,515

Lineup fragrances · Shopify + Amazon + Faire · post pack-decomp fix

Fall 2026 (forecast + diffuser)

40,908

+17.9% YoY ex-diffuser · +27.3% vs full 2025 base (incl. diffuser) · +38.6% vs lineup only (29,515) — lineup excludes 2,624 retired units (Forest Fern + Pear Cider). Ex-diffuser: 37,908 vs 32,139 full 2025 base = +17.9%, the truest apples-to-apples YoY. Engine targets 11.5% growth; rest comes from: Santal new launch, Shopify spray floors (+2,072), Amazon 3-pack sync (2,092/fragrance). Diffuser adds 3,000 units (new format, not in 2025 base)

Growth Target

11.5%

Team-set target · Bear 8% / Bull 15%

Fragrances

4 active

1 new · 3 returning · 0 sunsetting · + Diffuser format (F+L, AH, Santal)

📊 Fall Historical vs Forecast

Gray = Fall 2024, Blue = Fall 2025 (actual), Green = Fall 2026 (forecast). Forest Fern moved to year-round; Pear Cider retired — their demand is redistributed as growth to the returning lineup.

🧭 Fragrance Summary — What's Happening and Why

Fragrance	Status	2025 Actual	2026 Forecast	Change	Channel Mix (est.)	What's Driving This
Santal/Fall 2026 NEW	YEAR 1	—	14,010	new	Shop ~14,010 · No Amazon	Placeholder name — proper fragrance name TBD. Tier 2 / Medium debut. Format mix mirrors Flannel + Leaves Fall 2025 Y1 (the only Fall Y1 with non-zero history across all three of Santal's target formats). -25% haircut consolidated into raw_estimate (Dan, Apr 29) — raw_estimate of 7,294 = F+L Y1 9,725 × 0.75. Haircut is now baked into the forecast engine input, not applied as post-engine overlay. F+L's distribution shape is preserved. With diffuser overlay. 6.5oz Candle remains AH-exclusive. See BACKLOG for tier-based composite-proxy framework that will eventually replace the single-fragrance proxy approach.
Flannel + Leaves	YEAR 2	7,262	12,595	+73.4%	Shop ~10,503 · Amz ~2,092	Breakout Y1 launch returning for Y2. Age model predicts -17.3% decay; new Santal launch shifts some of the growth headroom but F+L still carries the largest 1.2x elasticity weight. Now also serves as Santal's format proxy (Apr 29, switched from Cabana). Includes ~1,425 Amazon pack units reattributed from the mis-decomposed Fall 2025 3-pack. With diffuser overlay.
Autumn Heirloom	YEAR 3	6,731	8,838	+31.3%	Shop ~6,746 (floor) · Amz ~2,092	Third year, aging but stable. Age model applies -27.7% decay. After elasticity scaling (0.8x weight) and growth target adjustment, lands at +14.5%. Only fragrance offering the 6.5oz candle. Fall 2025 baseline now includes ~1,425 Amazon units from the corrected 3-pack plus 553 from the WS+CT+AH variety pack. With diffuser overlay. Shopify spray floor: 2,560 (Dan, Apr 29). Amazon synced to 2,092 (3-pack logic). Engine had 1,446 Shopify sprays after Amazon override. Floor adds 1,114 units above engine.
Ginger Pumpkin	YEAR 4	4,923	5,465	+11.0%	Shop ~3,373 (floor) · Amz ~2,092	Established fall fragrance. Age model applies -20.0% floor rate. After elasticity scaling (0.6x weight) and growth target adjustment, gets -8.5%. Removed from car freshener lineup (Dan, April 21). 3-wick candle uses lineup average (2025 production issue). Fall 2025 baseline now includes ~1,425 reattributed Amazon pack units. Shopify spray floor: 1,920 (Dan, Apr 29 — increased from 1,280). Amazon synced to 2,092 (3-pack logic). Engine had 961 Shopify sprays after Amazon override. Floor adds 959 units above engine.
2oz Packs	Fixed allocation	1,079	4,000	+270.7%	Shopify only	1,000 units per fragrance × 4 fragrances. Set by the product team.
Diffuser (new format overlay) NEW		—	3,000	new	Shopify only (new format)	1,000 per fragrance × 3 (F+L, AH, Santal). Fixed allocation per Dan (Apr 29) — was previously mirroring Car Freshener units. Placeholder — proper BOM / SKU / pricing / capacity TBD (Nikita + Dan). See BACKLOG for full checklist.
Forest Fern → year-round · Pear Cider → retired		2,560	—	—	—	Combined 2025 Fall-window volume removed from seasonal forecast.

📋 SKU-Level Production Plan — Base Case

Convention: All counts are individual units (sprays, candles, car fresheners). 2oz Packs are counted as packs. All formats enabled for all fragrances except 6.5oz Candle (Autumn Heirloom only).

⚠️ AMAZON CHANNEL OVERRIDE IN EFFECT

How this works: The forecast engine models total demand (Shopify + Amazon combined). For Amazon 5oz Sprays, all three returning fragrances (F+L, AH, GP) are synchronized at 2,092 units each — these sell as an equal-unit 3-pack on Amazon, so volumes must match. Shopify = engine total minus Amazon, with floors applied where needed. All other formats (candles, car fresheners, diffusers, packs) remain Shopify-only.

Santal is Shopify-only — not listed on Amazon per marketing direction (Katelyn, Apr 29).

Amazon 3-pack sync (Dan + Nikita, Apr 29): F+L, AH, and GP sell together as a 3-pack on Amazon, so their Amazon spray volumes must be equal. All three set to 2,092 (GP's 1,876 × 1.115, used as the sync point). AH had higher historical Amazon volume (42% vs 27-34%) which inflated it under individual × 1.115 rules — the 3-pack sync corrects this.

Shopify spray floors: AH floored at 2,560, GP floored at 1,920 (Dan, Apr 29). These floors add 2,072 units to the grand total above the engine's output.

These channel numbers are NOT independent forecasts. They are a planning overlay. A proper channel-level forecast engine is tracked as a v3 enhancement (see #forecasting Slack).

Fragrance	Format	2025	2026	Shopify	Amazon	Cap	Notes
🌲 Santal/Fall 2026 — Year 1 New Launch — 14,010 units (Tier 2 / Medium · -25% haircut consolidated into raw_estimate · placeholder name)
	5oz Spray	—	8,834	8,834	—	—	Demand-driven · F+L Y1 proxy · haircut consolidated into raw_estimate · Shopify-only (not on Amazon)
	3-Wick Candle	—	1,512	1,512	—	—	Demand-driven · F+L Y1 proxy · haircut consolidated into raw_estimate
	Car Freshener	—	1,665	1,665	—	—	Demand-driven · F+L Y1 proxy · haircut consolidated into raw_estimate
	Diffuser NEW	—	1,000	1,000	—	—	Fixed 1,000 · placeholder, no BOM yet
	2oz Packs	—	1,000	1,000	—	1,000	Fixed allocation · excluded from haircut
🍂 Flannel + Leaves — Year 2 Returning — 12,595 units (+73.4% incl. diffuser)
	5oz Spray	—	7,793	5,701	2,092	—	Demand-driven · Amz = 2,092 (3-pack sync)
	3-Wick Candle	—	1,333	1,333	—	—	Demand-driven
	Car Freshener	—	1,469	1,469	—	—	Demand-driven
	Diffuser NEW	—	1,000	1,000	—	—	Fixed 1,000 · placeholder, no BOM yet
	2oz Packs	—	1,000	1,000	—	1,000	Fixed allocation
🎃 Autumn Heirloom — Year 3 Returning — 8,838 units (+31.3% incl. diffuser)
	5oz Spray	—	4,652	2,560 ⬆	2,092	—	⬆ FLOOR: Shopify min 2,560 (Dan). Amz = 2,092 (3-pack sync). Engine had 1,446 Shopify. +1,114 above engine
	6.5oz Candle	—	504	504	—	—	Demand-driven · Exclusive to AH
	3-Wick Candle	—	700	700	—	—	Demand-driven
	Car Freshener	—	982	982	—	—	Demand-driven · 2024 actuals override
	Diffuser NEW	—	1,000	1,000	—	—	Fixed 1,000 · placeholder, no BOM yet
	2oz Packs	—	1,000	1,000	—	1,000	Fixed allocation
🫚 Ginger Pumpkin — Year 4 Returning — 5,465 units (+11.0%) · No car freshener
	5oz Spray	—	4,012	1,920 ⬆	2,092	—	⬆ FLOOR: Shopify min 1,920 (Dan — increased from 1,280). Amz = 2,092 (3-pack sync). Engine had 961 Shopify. +959 above engine
	3-Wick Candle	—	453	453	—	—	Demand-driven · Lineup avg (2025 production issue)
	Car Freshener	—	—	—	—	—	Removed April 21 — Dan: only F+L & AH in car
	2oz Packs	—	1,000	1,000	—	1,000	Fixed allocation
GRAND TOTAL		29,515	40,908	34,632	6,276		35,836 engine base + 3,000 diffuser + 2,072 Shopify spray floors

🎯 Scenario Analysis

The growth rate is a team decision, not a prediction. These scenarios show how the production plan changes at different growth targets. All formats are demand-driven (no hard caps except packs).

Scenario	Growth	Total Units	Santal/Fall 2026	Flannel + Leaves	Autumn Heirloom	Ginger Pumpkin
Bear (conservative)	8.0%	40,109	13,586	12,220	8,838	5,465
Base (plan)	11.5%	40,908	14,010	12,595	8,838	5,465
Bull (aggressive)	15.0%	41,707	14,435	12,969	8,838	5,465

📊 Prediction Intervals — Base Case

Fragrance	Point Forecast	70% CI	90% CI	Confidence
Santal/Fall 2026 NEW	14,010	8,638 – 17,382	6,095 – 19,925	Wide · Y1 launch · haircut consolidated into raw_estimate
Flannel + Leaves	12,595	5,846 – 17,344	2,501 – 20,689	Wide
Autumn Heirloom	8,838	4,732 – 10,944	2,925 – 12,751	Wide
Ginger Pumpkin	5,465	2,562 – 6,368	1,456 – 7,474	Wide
GRAND TOTAL	37,908	Base forecast (pre-diffuser overlay, haircut consolidated into raw_estimate). Intervals don't sum — correlation effects

Intervals computed from pooled YoY variance across 23 fragrance transitions (outliers >±200% filtered). Wide CIs reflect high variance in Y1→Y2 decay rates (median -20.4%, stdev 31.3pp).

📉 Fragrance Age Decay

Fragrances lose demand as they age. The model measures YoY decline and applies that rate forward.

Flannel + Leaves (Y1→Y2): AH proxy-17.3%

Autumn Heirloom (Y2→Y3): FF proxy-27.7%

Ginger Pumpkin (Y3→Y4): classic floor-20.0%

Santal/Fall 2026 (Y1): F+L Y1 format proxyraw_estimate 7,294 (haircut consolidated)

Amazon override (all returning)+11.5% on 2025 actuals

Shopify spray floors (AH, GP)AH 2,560 · GP 1,920

Amazon 5oz Sprays use independent growth assumption, not engine decay. Santal = Shopify-only. See SKU table annotations.

Rule: no fragrance can decline more than -50% per year in the model, even if the observed data is worse. New launches are sized via tier hold + post-engine haircut (placeholder until composite-proxy framework lands).

⚙️ Config & Engine

All user inputs live in one config file. Edit it, run the script, get updated numbers.

Config fileFall_2026_Config.md ▶

Season windowAug 14 – Dec 5, 2026 (113 days)

Growth target11.5% (bear 8% / bull 15%)

Active fragrancesFlannel + Leaves (Y2), Autumn Heirloom (Y3), Ginger Pumpkin (Y4), Santal/Fall 2026 (Y1)

ExcludedForest Fern (year-round), Pear Cider (retired)

Decay: F+L Y1→Y2-17.3%

Decay: AH Y2→Y3-27.7%

Decay: GP Y3→Y4-20.0%

New launchSantal/Fall 2026 — Tier 2 / Medium · F+L Y1 format proxy · raw_estimate 7,294 (haircut consolidated into raw_estimate) (placeholder name)

Pack allocation4,000 (1K × 4 fragrances)

Format note6.5oz candle exclusive to Autumn Heirloom · Diffuser overlay = F+L, AH, Santal Car Freshener units (additive)

Forecast enginerun_forecast.py

Outputforecast_output.json

Season datesSeasonal_Dates_Config.md

Holiday 2026 Forecast

📅 Season Timing

Last seasonOct 17Holiday 2025 · Vanilla Peppermint

This seasonNov 1 – Jan 31Holiday 2026 · Winter Hearth (new) + VP + PSP refresh

📌Analysis window: Nov 1 – Jan 31 (Nikita confirmed May 26)92-day window, consistent across H2024 and H2025

Cumulative units by days since launch.

What this is: A demand forecast for Grow's holiday season (Nov 1, 2026 – Jan 31, 2027). Three fragrances: Winter Hearth (new, production-capped at 2,800), Vanilla Peppermint (Y2 returning), and Palo Santo Pine (refresh — absorbs Pine Forest demand). Holiday Hearth and Snowscape retired.

PSP refresh model (June 2, 2026): Pine Forest is retired as a standalone fragrance. Its historical demand (5,673 units H2025) is merged into Palo Santo Pine via PRODUCT_ALIASES in the engine, giving PSP a combined base of 7,430 units. PSP is treated as "half new" — 0% decay, 1.35× elasticity weight (midpoint of returning 1.2 and new 1.5). PSP gains 5oz Spray and Car Freshener formats from PF's legacy. 6.5oz Candle dropped; volume folds into 8oz.

Growth: 8% base case (Dave, May 26). Conservative — growth comes primarily from Winter Hearth new volume and PSP format expansion. Pre-diffuser total: 26,111. With diffuser overlay (CF-mirror) and Amazon 2-pack allocation: 30,111.

Amazon 2-pack: VP + PSP, 5oz Spray, 1,354 per fragrance (H2025 3-pack actuals 1,254 × 1.08 growth). Carved from Shopify 5oz Spray allocation — not additive volume.

Nikita purchasing review (June 4): Added 2oz Spray discovery packs (1,000 each for VP and PSP). Car Freshener capped at 2,000/frag (procurement limit). Diffuser mirrors CF cap → 2,000/frag.

Engine fixes applied June 2: (1) PRODUCT_ALIASES — VP V2 → VP, Pine Forest → PSP. (2) Cross-year window fix (Nov → Jan spans year boundary). (3) 8oz Candle format alias bug fixed.

Holiday 2025 (actual, Nov 1–Jan 31)

24,177

VP + PSP + PF + HH + SC + discovery

Holiday 2026 (forecast + diffuser)

30,111

+8.0% pre-diffuser (26,111) · +24.5% incl. diffuser + WH new volume

Growth Target

8.0%

Team-set · Bear 5% / Bull 12%

Fragrances

3 active

1 new (WH) · 2 returning (VP, PSP refresh) · 2 retired (HH, SC)

📊 Holiday Historical vs Forecast

Gray = Holiday 2024, Red = Holiday 2025 (actual), Green = Holiday 2026 (forecast). PSP includes Pine Forest (merged via refresh model). Holiday Hearth and Snowscape retired — their demand redistributed to returning lineup. All Nov 1 – Jan 31 window.

🧭 Fragrance Summary — What's Happening and Why

Fragrance	Status	2025 Actual	2026 Forecast	Change	What's Driving This
Winter Hearth NEW	CAPPED	—	2,800	new	Limited run — production defined by oils on hand. 1,800 × 5oz spray + 1,000 × 2oz spray. Not demand-modeled.
Vanilla Peppermint	YEAR 2	8,544	13,784	+61%	Strong Y1 debut (8,544 Nov–Jan). 0% decay (no holiday Y1→Y2 prior). Absorbs share of retired HH/SC demand. Includes VP V2 8oz candle (merged via PRODUCT_ALIASES). With diffuser overlay + Amazon 2-pack allocation.
Palo Santo Pine REFRESH	HALF NEW	7,430	13,527	+82%	PSP + Pine Forest combined. PF retired; demand migrates to refreshed PSP. Combined H2025 base: PSP 1,757 + PF 5,673 = 7,430. Gains 5oz Spray + CF from PF legacy. 1.35× elasticity ("half new"). With diffuser overlay + Amazon 2-pack allocation.
Holiday Hearth → retired · Snowscape → retired		6,559	—	—	HH censored in H2025 (pulled from Amazon, Shopify cutoff ~Dec 1). SC declining. Combined 6,559 units of retired demand redistributed to VP and PSP via growth target scaling.

📋 SKU-Level Production Plan — Base Case

Convention: All counts are individual units. Amazon 2-pack is carved from 5oz Spray allocation (not additive). Diffuser = Car Freshener units mirrored (additive overlay).

Fragrance	Format	2026	Shopify	Amazon	Cap	Notes
❄️ Winter Hearth — New Launch — 2,800 units (production-capped)
	5oz Spray	1,800	1,800	—	1,800	Hard cap — oils on hand
	2oz Spray	1,000	1,000	—	1,000	Hard cap — oils on hand
🍬 Vanilla Peppermint — Year 2 Returning — 13,784 units (+61%)
	5oz Spray	7,364	6,010	1,354	—	Demand-driven · Amz = 1,354 (2-pack: 1,254 × 1.08)
	8oz Candle	1,420	1,420	—	—	Demand-driven · includes VP V2 merge
	Car Freshener	2,000	2,000	—	2,000	Capped — procurement limit (Nikita)
	Diffuser NEW	2,000	2,000	—	—	CF-mirror overlay · capped at 2,000 (mirrors CF cap)
	2oz Spray	1,000	1,000	—	1,000	Discovery pack (Nikita)
🌲 Palo Santo Pine — Refresh (PSP + Pine Forest) — 13,527 units (+82%)
	5oz Spray	7,397	6,043	1,354	—	PF legacy format · Amz = 1,354 (2-pack: 1,254 × 1.08)
	8oz Candle	1,130	1,130	—	—	PSP legacy · 6.5oz folded into 8oz
	Car Freshener	2,000	2,000	—	2,000	Capped — procurement limit (Nikita)
	Diffuser NEW	2,000	2,000	—	—	CF-mirror overlay · capped at 2,000 (mirrors CF cap)
	2oz Spray	1,000	1,000	—	1,000	Discovery pack (Nikita)
GRAND TOTAL		30,111	27,403	2,708		26,111 engine + 4,000 diffuser. CF capped at 2,000 (Nikita). 2oz packs added. Amazon carved from spray.

🎯 Scenario Analysis

Pre-diffuser engine output. Diffuser adds ~4,073 to all scenarios (CF-mirror). Amazon 2-pack (2,708) carved from spray in all scenarios.

Scenario	Growth	Total (w/ diffuser)	Winter Hearth	Vanilla Peppermint	Palo Santo Pine
Bear	5.0%	29,386	2,800	13,417	13,169
Base (plan)	8.0%	30,111	2,800	13,784	13,527
Bull	12.0%	31,078	2,800	14,272	14,006

📊 Prediction Intervals — Base Case

How much uncertainty is in these numbers? Pre-diffuser engine intervals. Wider bands = less certainty.

Fragrance	Point Forecast	70% CI	90% CI	Confidence
Winter Hearth CAPPED	2,800	1,781 – 3,819	1,188 – 4,412	Cap is the forecast — CI reflects demand uncertainty, not production
Vanilla Peppermint	11,784	6,114 – 17,454	2,815 – 20,753	Wide · no holiday Y1→Y2 prior
Palo Santo Pine REFRESH	11,527	5,980 – 17,074	2,754 – 20,300	Wide · refresh = new model, limited history
GRAND TOTAL	26,111	Pre-diffuser engine total. +4,000 diffuser overlay = 30,111 final.

📉 Fragrance Age Decay

Decay rates applied to returning fragrances. Both held flat — growth comes from top-down scaling to absorb retired HH/SC volume.

Vanilla Peppermint (Y1→Y2)0.0% (override — no holiday Y1→Y2 prior)

Palo Santo Pine (refresh)0.0% (override — refresh novelty offsets aging)

Winter Hearth (Y1)N/A — production-capped

Elasticity: VP1.2× (Year 2)

Elasticity: PSP1.35× ("half new" — midpoint 1.2 and 1.5)

Elasticity: WH1.5× (Year 1, but capped)

⚙️ Config & Engine

All user inputs live in one config file. Edit it, run the script, get updated numbers.

Config fileHoliday_2026_Config.yaml (LOCKED)

Forecast enginerun_forecast.py

Outputforecast_output_holiday_final.json

Season datesSeasonal_Dates_Config.md

Season windowNov 1, 2026 – Jan 31, 2027 (92 days)

Growth target8.0% (bear 5% / bull 12%)

Active fragrancesWinter Hearth (new), Vanilla Peppermint (Y2), Palo Santo Pine (refresh)

RetiredHoliday Hearth, Snowscape · Pine Forest merged into PSP

Locked byDan, Nikita, Dave — June 2, 2026

Classics — Year-Round Forecast

What this is: Classics are Grow's year-round fragrances — they sell every day regardless of season. Unlike seasonals, they don't have a launch-and-decay lifecycle. Instead, their demand is driven by brand growth, repeat purchases, and catalog position. 2026 new classic: Midnight Orchid.

Classics 2024

95,706

8 fragrances

Classics 2025

117,923

+23.2% YoY

Classics 2026 (forecast)

151,531

+28.5% / +33,608 units

Fragrances

9 active

1 new (Midnight Orchid) · 8 returning

📊 Classics — 2024 vs 2025 vs 2026 Forecast

🧭 Classic Fragrance Detail

Fragrance	Launched	2024	2025	YoY	2026 Est.	Notes
Woodland Sage	2023	23,782	33,938	+42.7%	40,726	Top classic. Still accelerating — brand halo + strong repeat. Applied +20% for Y3→Y4.
Blondewood	2022	30,203	27,300	-9.6%	27,300	Slight decline but still #2. Projected flat for 2026 — mature classic holding steady.
Golden Grove	2024	10,433	24,797	+137.7%	29,756	Explosive Y1→Y2 growth. Applied +20% continued momentum for Y2→Y3.
Lavender Blossom	2018	12,134	13,175	+8.6%	13,175	Legacy classic. Slow growth — projected flat. Steady baseline performer.
Bamboo	2018	10,951	8,231	-24.8%	6,585	Declining legacy. Applied -20% for continued category rotation.
Midnight Orchid	2026	—	—	—	14,489	New classic launch. Estimated from avg of recent classic Y1s (Pacific Driftwood 4,836 + Golden Grove 10,433) × brand growth. High variance — could outperform significantly.
Pacific Driftwood	2025	—	4,836	—	5,800	Y1 in 2025. Moderate volume — projected +20% Y1→Y2 (brand growth lift).
Black Currant Rose	2019	3,585	4,732	+32.0%	5,678	Surprising growth for a legacy. Applied +20% continuation.
Cedar Citrus	2022	3,738	—	—	3,738	Sold in 2024, minimal 2025 data. Projected flat at 2024 level.
2oz Packs	—	880	914	+3.9%	914	Classic discovery set. Maintained at 2025 level.
TOTAL			117,923		148,161

⚙️ Config note: Classic forecasts use a simpler model than seasonals — no season window, no age-decay curve. Instead: individual fragrance growth rates based on observed trajectory + top-down scaling to hit growth target. These numbers are directional estimates. Create forecasting/Classics_2026_Config.md to formalize inputs and run through the engine.

Discovery Packs & Multi-Packs

What this is: 2oz Discovery Sets are promotional sample packs sold across all seasons. They're fixed allocations — not demand-driven. Each season gets a set number of packs, and they function as gateway products to drive full-size purchases. Amazon also has 2-packs and 3-packs of full-size sprays.

📦 2oz Discovery Sets by Season (Shopify) — all counts are packs sold

Season	2024 (packs)	2025 (packs)	YoY	2026 Allocation (packs)	Notes
Spring	584	534	-8.6%	1,000	1K packs (4 fragrances inside each pack)
Summer	1,644	614	-62.6%	1,000	1K packs (4 fragrances inside each pack)
Fall	1,931	860	-55.5%	TBD	Needs fall lineup config
Holiday	1,369	802	-41.4%	TBD	Needs holiday lineup config
Classics	880	914	+3.9%	914	Year-round sampler
TOTAL	6,408	3,724	-41.9%	2,914+	Partial — fall + holiday TBD

📊 Amazon Multi-Packs

Amazon sells 2-packs (8 ASINs), 3-pack mixes (9 ASINs), and a 4-pack mix (1 ASIN) of full-size 5oz sprays. These are decomposed into individual product rows in fact_orders — they don't need separate forecasting. Their demand is captured in the per-fragrance unit counts for each season. The map_amazon_packs table (62 rows) handles the decomposition mapping.