Customer Analytics — Shopify
Repeat Purchase Rate
24.3%
16,816 of 69,056 customers
Median Reorder Time
67 days
Avg 97 days · 31K reorder events
All-Time LTV
$73.30
$5.06M across 69K customers
Pareto (Top 20%)
54.0%
Top quintile = 54% of all revenue
🛒 AOV by Order Number
1st Order · 69,056 orders$46.1863%
2nd Order · 16,816 orders$53.5618%
3rd Order · 6,840 orders$57.528%
4th+ Order · 8,112 orders$71.3511%
AOV increases 54% from 1st to 4th+ order. Repeat customers spend significantly more.
📊 Customer Order Frequency
107 "superfans" (11+ orders) generate $172K — avg LTV $1,611 each.
🎯 Revenue Concentration (Pareto)
Top 20% of customers generate 54% of revenue. Top 40% generate 74%. Bottom 20% generate just 4.7%.
👥 Cohort Retention — Shopify Customers DuckDB
| Cohort | Customers | 3-Month | 6-Month | 9-Month | 12-Month | LTV/Customer |
|---|
| 2024-Q1 | 6,778 | 16.4% | 0.3% | — | — | $69.83 |
| 2024-Q2 | 9,447 | 0.1% | — | — | — | $50.96 |
| 2024-Q3 | 11,180 | 36.7% | 31.1% | 26.0% | 19.6% | $115.33 |
| 2024-Q4 | 10,898 | 27.0% | 22.4% | 16.6% | 9.1% | $81.65 |
| 2025-Q1 | 5,993 | 21.1% | 14.8% | 6.9% | — | $71.68 |
| 2025-Q2 | 8,491 | 13.8% | 6.7% | — | — | $64.48 |
| 2025-Q3 | 6,821 | 8.9% | — | — | — | $65.37 |
| 2025-Q4 | 9,448 | — | — | — | — | $53.43 |
2024-Q3 is the strongest cohort: $115 LTV, 36.7% return at 3 months, 19.6% still active at 12 months. 2024-Q1 and Q2 show unusually low retention — investigate whether order date coverage is incomplete for those periods.
🔄 New vs Returning Revenue by Month — 2025
Returning customer revenue exceeds new customer revenue in Jul–Sep and Nov. August is the peak returning month ($98K), likely driven by fall launch reorders from established customers.
Repurchase Behavior — from Reorder Analysis
⏱️ Repurchase Timing Distribution NEW
62% of repeat purchases happen within 90 days. The critical marketing window is 15-60 days post-purchase (33% of all reorders). Median reorder time: 67 days.
🏷️ Discount Impact on Retention NEW
+12.2pp lift. Customers acquired with a discount repeat at 31.9% vs 19.7% without. Discount-acquired customers are NOT "junk" — they're significantly stickier. This is a strong signal that introductory offers drive long-term value.
🚪 Gateway Conversion by Format — Which First Purchase Leads to Repeat? NEW
| Format (First Order) | First-Order Customers | Became Repeat | Gateway % |
|---|
| 6.5 oz Candle | 14,067 | 4,333 | 30.8% |
| Vessel | 10,026 | 2,766 | 27.6% |
| Car Freshener | 20,679 | 5,405 | 26.1% |
| 5 oz Spray | 52,353 | 12,747 | 24.3% |
| 2 oz Pack | 8,004 | 1,891 | 23.6% |
| 3-Wick Candle | 5,884 | 1,131 | 19.2% |
6.5oz candle-first buyers convert at 30.8% — 6.5pp higher than spray-first (24.3%). The 8oz candle is the weakest gateway at 19.2% (higher price point may attract gift/one-time buyers). Sprays are the volume gateway (52K customers) but candles are the quality gateway.
🟢 Best Gateway Products (200+ buyers)
| Fragrance | Format | Custs | Gateway % |
|---|
| Pear Cider | 6.5oz Candle | 806 | 50.0% |
| Autumn Heirloom | Car Fresh | 1,319 | 46.8% |
| Autumn Heirloom | 6.5oz Candle | 1,624 | 46.6% |
| Ginger Pumpkin | 6.5oz Candle | 1,165 | 45.5% |
| Pear Cider | 5oz Spray | 2,437 | 41.0% |
| Forest Fern | 5oz Spray | 2,908 | 39.2% |
| Autumn Heirloom | 5oz Spray | 4,409 | 36.4% |
Pear Cider candle converts 1 in 2 first-time buyers into repeat customers. Seasonal candles dominate the top of this list.
🔴 Weakest Gateways (200+ buyers)
| Fragrance | Format | Custs | Gateway % |
|---|
| Vanilla Peppermint | 5oz Spray | 1,828 | 9.2% |
| Vanilla Peppermint | Car Fresh | 428 | 9.3% |
| Palo Santo Pine | 8oz Candle | 334 | 10.2% |
| Pacific Driftwood | Car Fresh | 647 | 11.1% |
| Pine Forest | 5oz Spray | 4,817 | 15.0% |
| Coastal Tide | Car Fresh | 2,149 | 16.5% |
| Coastal Tide | 8oz Candle | 267 | 17.6% |
Vanilla Peppermint spray: 1,828 first-order customers but only 9.2% convert. Pine Forest at 15% with 4,817 customers = high-volume retention dead end. These products are acquisition magnets but retention failures.
Cross-Year Retention
17.5%
6,690 of 38,303 2024 customers returned in 2025
Same-Product Reorder
52.9%
Of repeat customers, 53% rebuy the same product
Cross-Format Buyers
51.0%
51% buy same fragrance in a different format (e.g. spray→candle)
🎯 First-Order Variety → Repeat Rate NEW
| First Order Contents | Customers | Became Repeat | Gateway % | Avg 1st AOV |
|---|
| 1 product (single SKU) | 22,039 | 4,333 | 19.7% | $21.59 |
| 2 products | 16,077 | 4,125 | 25.7% | $33.14 |
| 3 products | 9,434 | 2,482 | 26.3% | $54.94 |
| 4-5 products | 15,195 | 4,045 | 26.6% | $67.51 |
| 6+ products | 6,311 | 1,831 | 29.0% | $104.25 |
Variety drives loyalty. Customers who try 6+ products on their first order repeat at 29.0% vs 19.7% for single-SKU buyers — a 9.3pp gap. Multi-fragrance tells the same story: 1 fragrance = 19.8%, 3 fragrances = 28.3%. Every additional scent sampled increases the odds of coming back. Bundle-forward acquisition (homepage bundles, "build your own" in paid ads) is the highest-leverage retention tactic.
💡 Reorder Analysis — Key Insight
The format gateway matters more than the fragrance. 6.5oz candles convert first-time buyers into repeat customers at 30.8% — 6.5pp above sprays. Seasonal candles (Pear Cider, Autumn Heirloom, Ginger Pumpkin) are the strongest gateways at 45-50%. Meanwhile, high-volume spray acquisitions (Pine Forest, Vanilla Peppermint) bring in thousands of one-and-done customers. Cross-sell spray buyers into candles — 51% of repeat customers already buy the same fragrance in a different format. The post-purchase flow should target 15-60 days (the peak reorder window) with a candle cross-sell for spray buyers and a replenishment reminder for candle buyers. And variety matters independently: customers who sample 3+ fragrances on their first order repeat at 28%+ regardless of format.
Within-Year Repeat Rate — 2024
18.0%
6,913 of 38,303 customers reordered within 2024
Within-Year Repeat Rate — 2025
23.5%
8,813 of 37,443 customers · +5.5pp YoY
Recommendations — Customer & Retention
Action
🔔 Build a 0–90 Day Post-Purchase Flow
62% of repeat purchases happen within 90 days. The peak reorder window is 15–60 days (33% of all reorders). Recommended cadence: Day 7 (product tips) → Day 14 (satisfaction check + cross-sell) → Day 30 (replenishment reminder) → Day 45 ("try a new scent" with incentive) → Day 60 (urgency + bundle offer) → Day 90 (win-back with stronger discount). This alone could move repeat rate 3–5pp based on industry benchmarks.
Action
📦 Lead Acquisition with Multi-Product Bundles
Customers who buy 6+ products on their first order repeat at 29.0% vs 19.7% for single-SKU buyers — a 9.3pp gap. Multi-fragrance sampling is the strongest predictor of loyalty. Make "build your own bundle" the default offer on homepage and in paid ads. Every customer moved from single-SKU to multi-product first order is dramatically more likely to return.
Action
🕯️ Cross-Sell Sprays → Candles in Retention Flows
6.5oz candle-first buyers repeat at 30.8% vs sprays at 24.3%. And 51% of repeat customers already buy the same fragrance in a different format. The post-purchase email for spray buyers should feature the candle version of their purchased fragrance. Candles are the stickiest format — seasonal candles (Pear Cider 50%, Autumn Heirloom 47%, Ginger Pumpkin 46%) are the strongest gateways in the entire product line.
Watch
⚠️ High-Volume Retention Dead Ends
Vanilla Peppermint spray: 1,828 first-order customers but only 9.2% gateway conversion — worst in the product line. Pine Forest spray: 4,817 first-buyers, 15.0% conversion. These are acquisition magnets pulling in thousands of one-and-done customers. If these are prominent in paid ads, you may be spending significant CAC on customers with very low probability of returning. Consider deprioritizing in acquisition channels or pairing with a bundle offer.
Strategic
🔄 Subscription / Loyalty Program Expansion
Prior analysis found Insiders program members repeat at 94.7% (small sample: 262 customers). With 4,769 customers at 5+ orders and 903 at 10+, there's a meaningful superfan base not being formally recognized. Target 15–20% of revenue from subscription within 12 months. Start with sprays (clearest replenishment cycle) and build a tiered loyalty program to move 3-4x buyers into the 5+ tier.
Product Intelligence — 2025
🌿 Revenue by Fragrance Family (All-Time, Pack-Attributed)
🏆 Fragrance Scoreboard — Revenue per Day, 2025 NEW
| Fragrance | Launch Year | Units | Revenue | $/Day |
|---|
| Woodland Sage | 2023 | 26,555 | $337,254 | $924 |
| Blondewood | 2022 | 21,701 | $270,700 | $742 |
| Golden Grove | 2024 | 20,277 | $226,504 | $621 |
| Lavender Blossom | 2018 | 11,275 | $116,676 | $320 |
| Cabana ★ | 2025 | 8,766 | $112,519 | $308 |
| Flannel + Leaves ★ | 2025 | 7,301 | $100,006 | $274 |
| Pine Forest | 2018 | 6,854 | $96,310 | $264 |
| Bamboo | 2018 | 6,762 | $85,136 | $233 |
| Cucumber Aloe ★ | 2025 | 6,966 | $84,826 | $232 |
| Autumn Heirloom | 2024 | 6,140 | $82,839 | $227 |
| Vanilla Peppermint | 2021 | 5,664 | $82,373 | $226 |
| Coconut Pineapple | 2024 | 6,606 | $81,367 | $223 |
| Ginger Pumpkin | 2019 | 5,788 | $77,840 | $213 |
| Coastal Tide | 2022 | 6,345 | $77,397 | $212 |
★ = 2025 launch. Woodland Sage ($924/day) and Blondewood ($742/day) dominate. Three 2025 launches (Cabana, Flannel + Leaves, Cucumber Aloe) all performing above $230/day — healthy new product contribution.
🔁 Most Reordered Products (Shopify, 100+ buyers min) NEW
| Fragrance | Format | Repeat Buyers | Total Buyers | Reorder % |
|---|
| Woodland Sage | 5 oz Spray | 1,746 | 13,775 | 12.7% |
| Forest Fern | 6.5 oz Candle | 125 | 1,061 | 11.8% |
| Autumn Heirloom | 6.5 oz Candle | 239 | 2,236 | 10.7% |
| Pear Cider | 6.5 oz Candle | 115 | 1,130 | 10.2% |
| Autumn Heirloom | 5 oz Spray | 602 | 6,063 | 9.9% |
| Palo Santo Pine | 6.5 oz Candle | 179 | 1,818 | 9.8% |
| Pear Cider | 5 oz Spray | 322 | 3,275 | 9.8% |
| Golden Grove | 5 oz Spray | 890 | 9,263 | 9.6% |
| Blondewood | 5 oz Spray | 1,394 | 14,881 | 9.4% |
| Woodland Sage | 6.5 oz Candle | 331 | 3,504 | 9.4% |
Candles show higher reorder rates than sprays for the same fragrance (e.g., Autumn Heirloom candle 10.7% vs spray 9.9%). Woodland Sage 5oz spray leads in absolute repeat buyers (1,746).
Recommendations — Products & Sales
Prioritize
✅ SKU Health: Invest More
High revenue + high gateway/reorder rates — these earn their shelf space and should receive more marketing investment:
Pear Cider (50% gateway candle, 41% spray), Autumn Heirloom (47% candle, 36% spray), Golden Grove (35% candle), Forest Fern (42% candle, 39% spray), Ginger Pumpkin (46% candle). All seasonal candles in the 6.5oz format are consistently top-tier gateways.
Evaluate
🔍 SKU Health: Reposition or Deprioritize
High acquisition volume but low retention — these bring in one-and-done customers:
Vanilla Peppermint spray (9.2% gateway, 1,828 first-buyers), Pine Forest spray (15.0% gateway, 4,817 first-buyers), 3-Wick Candles across all fragrances (19.2% gateway — worst format). If these are featured in paid acquisition, the CAC is being spent on customers unlikely to return. Options: deprioritize in ad creative, pair with bundle offers, or reposition as cross-sell rather than acquisition products.
Investigate
🔬 Discovery Set Gateway Underperformance
Prior analysis found the Everyday Favorites Discovery Set at 37% repeat — it underperforms mix-and-match bundles at 50%+. For a product whose purpose is to create repeat customers, this is below expectations. Possible causes: wrong fragrance selection, price point doesn't create commitment, or post-purchase follow-up for set buyers needs work. Worth a dedicated deep-dive. (Backlogged — needs Discovery Set variant data for full analysis.)
Channel Performance & Media Efficiency — 2025 (Historical)
📈 Monthly MER — Spend as % of Net Revenue DuckDB
Lower = more efficient. Nov is typically the most efficient month (BFCM).
💰 Monthly Ad Spend by Channel
Monthly Detail — 2025
📅 Monthly Performance DuckDB
| Month | Net Rev | Meta | Google | Az Ads | Total Spend | Spend % | MER |
|---|
March 2026 MTD — Live via Adzviser MCP
Total Revenue (MTD)
$166,100
Shopify API $123.6K + Amazon $42.5K
Run rate: $271K · Mar '25: $265K (+2.3%)
Total Ad Spend (MTD)
$38,827
Meta 77% · Google 15% · Amazon 8%
Run rate: $63K · Mar '25: $74K (−15%)
MER (MTD)
4.28x
▲ +20% vs Mar '25 (3.57x)
TW validated: 4.52x (within 5%)
GA4 CVR
6.29%
▲ +34% vs Mar '25 (4.71%)
Fewer visitors, better conversion
📡 Channel ROAS — March 2026 MTD (Mar 1–19) ADZVISER LIVE
| Channel | Spend | Conv Value | ROAS | Purchases | CPC | CTR |
|---|
| Meta Ads | $29,933 | $121,226 | 4.05x | 2,215 | $2.99 | 1.0% |
| Google Ads | $5,661 | $34,645 | 6.12x | 392 | $2.36 | 5.9% |
| Amazon Ads | $3,233 | $18,216 | 5.63x | 553 | $0.95 | 0.9% |
🌐 GA4 Web Analytics — March MTD NEW — LIVE
Active Users19,820−60% YoY
Sessions26,862−56% YoY
Purchase Revenue$92,224
Transactions1,689
Engagement Rate46.9%+3.5pp
CVR6.29%+1.6pp
Avg Session Duration2:14+24s
⚠️ Traffic down significantly but conversion quality way up. Less top-of-funnel, more intent-driven visitors.
📡 GA4 Traffic Channels — March MTD NEW — LIVE
⚠️ "Unassigned" is #1 revenue channel — likely untagged Klaviyo email. Paid Search has highest CVR (13.1%).
📅 March YoY Comparison LIVE + DuckDB
| Metric | Mar '26 MTD (19d) | Mar '25 (full) | Mar '26 Run Rate | YoY Pace |
|---|
| Total Revenue | $166,100 | $264,851 | $271,005 | +2.3% |
| Shopify (API) | $123,603 | $182,653 | $201,668 | +10.4% |
| Amazon | $42,497 | $82,198 | $69,311 | −15.7% |
| Total Ad Spend | $38,827 | $74,182 | $63,349 | −14.6% |
| MER | 4.28x | 3.57x | 4.28x | +19.9% |
| GA4 Sessions | 26,862 | 61,120 | 43,830 | −28.3% |
| GA4 CVR | 6.29% | 4.71% | — | +33.5% |
Story: With corrected Shopify API revenue, March is pacing +2.3% above Mar '25. MER improved 20% YoY (3.57x→4.28x). Spend down 15%, CVR up 34%. More efficient — significantly less spend, better conversion, growing revenue. Validated within 5% of Triple Whale.
Media Efficiency Insights — from MER Analysis
🚀 Meta as Launch Engine MER
Meta ↔ Revenue Correlation
r = 0.81
Strong — Meta spend is the primary revenue driver
Non-launch baseline$13.7K/wk
Launch windows get ~40% of annual Meta budget
Launch Window Efficiency (2025)
Holiday (Nov) — best21.1%
Summer II (Aug–Sep)24.5%
Spring (Feb)26.1%
Fall (Aug–Sep)27.3%
Non-launch avg26.2%
🔗 Amazon Halo Effect MER
Meta ↔ Amazon Revenue Correlation
r = 0.66
Same-week — Meta spend lifts Amazon revenue
High-Meta weeks: Amazon net$9,236/wk
Low-Meta weeks: Amazon net$7,827/wk
Halo lift+18%
Annualized unattributed Amazon revenue~$73K
Rule: Don't cut Meta when platform ROAS looks marginal. Add ~18% to true blended return. Min Meta floor: $35K/month to maintain ~$38–40K/month Amazon revenue.
⚖️ Three Levers to Break-Even MER Framework
| Lever | Current | Target | Impact |
|---|
| 1. Gross Margin | 44% | 50% (COGS 50 Plan) | ~$200K at current revenue |
| 2. MER | 32% | 27% → 25% | ~$170K in reduced spend |
| 3. Revenue | $3.31M | $4.2M+ → $5.0M | $56K CM per $100K growth |
All three levers combined (COGS 50 + 25% MER + $5M revenue) = ~$430K operating income (McKinsey scenario). Current structure at 32% MER requires $5.95M revenue to break even — unreachable. COGS 50 + 25% MER brings break-even down to $3.83M — achievable within 2026 plan.
🎯 2026 MER Targets & Spend Budget MER Framework
| Month | 2025 MER | 2026 Target | Revenue | Spend Budget | Posture |
|---|
| Jan | 31.2% | 25% | $165K | $41K | Harvest |
| Feb | 33.1% | 28% | $260K | $73K | Invest |
| Mar | 30.6% | 26% | $275K | $72K | Maintain |
| Apr | 33.1% | 30% | $330K | $99K | Invest |
| May | 35.9% | 30% | $340K | $102K | Invest |
| Jun | 31.7% | 26% | $310K | $81K | Hold |
| Jul | 33.8% | 25% | $235K | $59K | Harvest |
| Aug | 31.4% | 28% | $345K | $97K | Invest |
| Sep | 31.5% | 27% | $375K | $101K | Moderate |
| Oct | 37.1% | 28% | $330K | $92K | Pre-BFCM |
| Nov | 26.4% | 23% | $565K | $130K | BFCM Peak |
| Dec | 32.5% | 26% | $320K | $83K | Wind Down |
| 2026 Total | 32.0% | 27.0% | $3.85M | $1.03M | +14% rev, –5% spend |
P&L Structure & Revenue Quality
📋 P&L Anatomy (Mar 2025 – Feb 2026) fact_pnl
Shopify Revenue (Gross)$5.43M
Amazon Revenue (Gross)$2.09M
Wholesale Revenue$196K
COGS — Raw Materials–$1.35M
COGS — Warehouse Labor–$1.07M
COGS — Shipping–$995K
Amazon Fees–$833K
Merchant Fees (Shopify)–$206K
Gross Profit~44%
Media Spend–$1.98M
Office Labor + Benefits–$1.41M
Net Operating Income–$1.12M
🔄 Gross vs Net Revenue — 2025
| Channel | Gross Rev | Net Rev | Net/Gross | Fees | Discounts |
|---|
| Shopify | $2.99M | $2.79M | 93.4% | $128K | $70K |
| Amazon | $1.03M | $873K | 84.9% | $154K | $1K |
MER Analysis Net Factors (P&L-derived)
Shopify net factor×0.92🟡
Amazon net factor (ad spend carved out)×0.563🟡
Net factors are P&L-derived averages. Amazon's factor is lower because it includes referral fees, FBA, returns, and sales tax (but ad spend carved out as separate line for correlation analysis).
📊 Industry MER Benchmarks
Top Tier DTC MER18–22%
Healthy DTC MER22–30%
Growth Stage30–40%
Danger Zone>40%
Grow (2025)29.6%
Home fragrance gross margin norm60–70%
Grow gross margin44%
Grow's MER is at the boundary of healthy/growth-stage. The bigger concern is 44% gross margin vs the 60-70% category norm — that's the COGS 50 Plan lever.
📏 Weekly Execution Rules
Weekly spend ≤ monthly budget ÷ 4.33Even pacing
Weekly MER (rolling 4-wk) ≤ target + 3ppGuardrail
No single campaign > 30% of weekly budgetDiversify
Amazon ad spend ≤ $2,500/week$10K/mo cap
Google ≤ 25% of total media budget~$21K/mo
Klaviyo Attribution (Moderate Scenario ★)
Klaviyo claimed attribution~30% of Shopify
Estimated true incrementality50% of claimed
Owned revenue (Moderate)~15% of Shopify
Three scenarios: Conservative (100% owned), Moderate (50% owned) ★ recommended, Aggressive (35% owned). Full scenario toggle available in the interactive MER dashboard in specs/mer_reference/.
Recommendations — Channels & Spend
Strategic
🎯 Path to 27% MER — Three Levers
Current MER is 29.6% (2025 blended). 2026 target is 27%. Three levers move the needle simultaneously:
Lever 1 (Gross Margin): 44% → 50% via COGS 50 Plan = ~$200K impact.
Lever 2 (MER): 32% → 27% = ~$170K in reduced spend.
Lever 3 (Revenue): $3.31M → $4.2M+ = $56K contribution margin per $100K growth.
All three combined at full target = ~$430K operating income. COGS 50 + 25% MER brings break-even to $3.83M — achievable within 2026 plan.
Operational
🚀 Protect Meta Floor — Amazon Halo at Risk Below $35K/mo
Meta spend correlates at r=0.81 with total revenue and r=0.66 with Amazon revenue (halo effect). High-Meta weeks generate +18% more Amazon revenue ($9.2K vs $7.8K/wk). Minimum Meta floor: $35K/month to maintain ~$38-40K/month Amazon revenue. Don't cut Meta when platform ROAS looks marginal — add ~18% to the true blended return.
Investigation
🔬 Klaviyo Holdout Test — Resolve Attribution Uncertainty
The gap between Klaviyo scenarios (Conservative 100% owned vs Aggressive 35% owned) creates a wide band of uncertainty in "true" MER. A 90-day holdout test (free via Klaviyo, requires 400K+ profiles) would definitively answer email incrementality. This is the single highest-value analytics investment available — it resolves whether email is truly driving 30% of Shopify revenue or whether the platform is overclaiming by 40-70% (industry norm).
📎 Deep Dive References
Full interactive MER time-series (105-week, 3 Klaviyo scenarios, scatter plots) and anomaly audit available in dashboards/specs/mer_reference/. The weekly dataset, break-even model, and launch-window analysis were produced by the MER Analysis project (Feb–Mar 2026) and absorbed into this dashboard.
Data Quality:
● Orders, units, revenue (deduped), Klaviyo, customer IDs
● Platform fees, COGS, 2024 Amazon ads
● Shipping cost, inventory, GA4
Grow Datahub DuckDB · March 19, 2026