Read first → The Grow Relaunch

The Grow Turnaround, Start to Finish

The strategic context — the arithmetic of the problem, the five moves explained as a story, and how to read the math.

Plan

The Five Moves

The operational plan for the relaunch: rebuild acquisition, premiumize the spray (punted), launch the diffuser, run the retention engine, hold the line on costs and overhead. Last refreshed June 3, 2026.

Plan Compliance — Approaching Gates
At Risk
BOM Coverage ≥ 85% by EoQ2
Deadline: June 30, 2026
Currently 78% (all products) / 86% (active). Active products cleared the gate; all-product coverage still 7pp short. Labor model blocker remains.
On Track
G&A Drift < $50K by EoQ2
Deadline: June 30, 2026
$333K G&A + payroll through May (annualizes to ~$798K vs $1.04M baseline). Well under threshold; Brian/Mary savings reflected.
Not Started
Cube Optimization Audit — Top-20 SKUs
Within 60 days — late June deadline
Audit not started. Targets $502K shipping line; 5% savings ~$25K/year. Approaching the deadline without having begun.
Urgent
Brian Knowledge Harvest
Before June 12, 2026
Brian departs June 12. MRP bug patterns, real BOMs, and failure modes must be captured before departure. 9 days remaining.
In Progress
Canopy Offboarding Complete
Before June 22, 2026
Termination effective June 22. Checklist includes creative library, ad account ownership, pixel/CAPI config, naming conventions, final billing. Slacked to Katelyn.
In Progress
Mike Onboarding Doc Ready
Before June 22, 2026
Mike Hourigan starts June 22. Onboarding document in progress. The 90-day new-customer recovery clock starts on his first day.
Five Moves at a Glance
Move Function Timing Leading KPI Risk Gate
1. Rebuild acquisition Marketing Mike starts June 22; 90d recovery New-customer ROAS, new-customer revenue $ Second restructure if no movement at 60d post-Mike-start
2. Premiumize the spray Product + Ops Punted — post-diffuser + post-aluminum First-order CM, hero-scent uplift Unit demand drop >25% on test → hold
3. Launch the diffuser Product / Founder Mid-August 2026 Refill attach rate, week-4 CVR Week 4 CVR < 1.5% → cut paid spend
4. Retention engine Marketing Kicked off Apr 30; revisiting June Repeat revenue $ No 1st-to-reorder lift by week 6 → declare structural
5A. COGS discipline Operations Continuous BOM coverage, shipping $/order BOM below 85% by EoQ2 → escalate
5B. G&A discipline Leadership Continuous G&A vs $1.04M baseline $50K cumulative drift by EoQ2 → cost review

Why dollar targets, not share targets. Moves 1 and 4 each produce revenue; a share metric pits them against each other in misleading ways. We measure each on its own dollar contribution and let share fall out as a derived reporting metric.

Actuals Overlay — Q1 2026 Reconciled + Q2 Partial (Apr–May)
Move Plan Target Q1 2026 Actual Q2 Partial (Apr–May) Read
1. Rebuild acquisition -$200–250K Meta + recovery Meta Q1 -22% vs 2025 ($149K → $116K); CAC $41 (vs $37 in 2025) Meta $135K (spend ramping — $60K Apr, $75K May); Meta-only CAC $46 Spend back above 2025 pace. CAC rising with spend. Mike starts June 22 — 90-day clock starts then.
2. Premiumize spray Punted — no 2026 revenue assumption Shopify AOV up 21% YoY ($16.43 → $19.91) AOV holding at $19.55/line item Price test still deferred. AOV gains from mix/bundle.
3. Launch diffuser $300–500K Yr1, mid-August 2026 Pre-launch, production nearly complete Pre-launch; refill machinery setup in progress On schedule. Air freight decision pending.
4. Retention engine $1.46M → $1.80M+ repeat $ Q1 repeat revenue $261K (61% of Shopify) Q2 partial repeat $236K (62% of Shopify) YTD repeat: $497K, annualizing to ~$1.19M. Trending up slightly but needs the 1st-to-reorder cliff fix to reach $1.80M.
5A. COGS discipline BOM ≥ 95%, shipping $/order down BOM at 68.7%, cube audit not started BOM at 78% (all) / 86% (active). Cube audit not started. BOM improved +9pp since Q1. Still blocked on labor model for remaining gaps. Cube audit approaching EoQ2 deadline.
5B. G&A discipline ~$1.04M flat Brian/Mary savings realized; cost review not started G&A + Payroll through May: $333K (annualizes to ~$798K vs $1.04M baseline) On track — run rate well under baseline, reflecting Brian/Mary savings.

Headline risk. Shopify first-order share slid from 51% in Q1 2025 to 42% in Q1 2026. Q2 partial: 44%. Monthly trend: Jan 47% → Feb 43% → Mar 38% → Apr 46% → May 41%. The decline has stabilized but not reversed. The repeat engine is load-bearing an increasing share of the business by default, not design — because fewer new customers are entering the funnel.

Office
Move 1 — Acquisition

Mike Hourigan starts June 22 and the 90-day new-customer recovery clock begins that day. New-customer ROAS replaces blended MER as the primary KPI. Key shifts: branded search capped, Amazon returned to $7–8K/month floor (highest-ROAS channel), retargeting capped at 15% of Meta. Canopy offboarding completes June 22 — creative library, ad account ownership, and pixel configurations must transfer before then. The Meta–Amazon halo (0.72 correlation between Meta spend and Amazon organic revenue) means true Meta ROAS is 15–20% higher than reported — factor this into any spend-cut decisions. Health messaging (ingredient comparison, formulation transparency) is the sharpest underused differentiator in creative.

Move 2 — Premiumize [Punted]

Price increase ($20/$22/$24 ladder) deferred until post-diffuser launch AND post-aluminum bottle transition. The plan does not rely on spray price increase revenue in 2026 or H1 2027. When triggered: $16 → $20 on three hero scents, 90-day elasticity test before broad rollout, aluminum quotes from three vendors. Decision gate: aluminum if landed COGS delta < $2; premium PET refresh if > $2.50.

Move 3 — Diffuser Launch

Mid-August 2026 target. Production nearly complete; refill machinery has arrived and setup is in progress. Air freight decision pending (lithium-ion battery shipping constraint). Two pre-launch items that must resolve before launch: (1) refill pricing — the subscription model's unit economics (attach rate, churn, LTV) all depend on it; (2) hardware lock-in confirmation — if generic essential oils work in the nebulizer, the 7% churn assumption and the entire subscription compounding model need revision. Subscription portal platform decision (Loop vs. Recharge) still open.

Diffuser Launch — Mid-August 2026

Diffuser hardware → proprietary refill subscription → compounding recurring revenue. Default-bias checkout (subscription pre-selected, opt-out rather than opt-in). 60-day refill cadence. DTC + Shopify first; Amazon evaluation post-launch. Target: $300–500K Year 1. Refill attach rate ≥ 40% by Week 4 is the strategic gating metric.

Move 4 — Retention

Flows audit kicked off April 30; revisiting June with a mini-brief approach — Dan reviews plan, generates 1–2 email briefs, hands to Katelyn. The biggest conversion cliff is post-purchase 1st-to-reorder: 25.5K recipients produced only $2K in 90 days (RPR $0.08). Target: $0.50+ RPR within 90 days. Risk gate: if 1st-to-reorder conversion doesn’t move with timing/offer changes by week 6, declare structural and revise the $1.80M target down.

Move 5B — G&A Discipline

Each G&A commitment through 2026 must clear: “Can we do this without adding to the $1.04M baseline?” Brian/Mary labor savings (~$200K combined) are the buffer for relaunch investment, not new overhead. Run rate through May annualizes to ~$798K — on track, but the discipline has to hold through the diffuser investment cycle.

G&A Target: Hold at $1.04M

SaaS consolidation, headcount discipline, rent. Brian/Mary departures (~$200K savings) are the buffer — not a windfall. Every dollar saved goes to diffuser investment. No quarter exceeds trailing-quarter average by more than 5%.

Warehouse Ops
Move 5A — COGS Discipline

COGS is the largest controllable cost bucket and the one most directly tied to margin improvement. Three levers: (1) cube/box size optimization attacking the $502K shipping line directly — even 5% saves ~$25K/year; (2) BOM completion push to 95% by end of Q3 — prerequisite for knowing true product-level margins; (3) raw materials ($698K, 20.6% of revenue) — negotiate supplier terms as diffuser adds volume leverage. Diffuser filling equipment evaluated under COGS discipline, not G&A.

COGS Target: 50%

Cube optimization, BOM push toward true COGS, raw material sourcing, warehouse labor model, diffuser filling equipment. BOM at 78% all / 86% active. Cube audit on top-20 SKUs approaching EoQ2 deadline — not started. Risk gate: BOM below 85% by EoQ2 → escalate.

Tech Program

Current: inventory-integrity refactor — Phase 0 (reconciliation invariant) shipped, Phase 1 (central inventory service) building, F-014 production-drift decision open. Dan took ownership May 2026. Three priorities: inventory integrity (event sourcing, FIFO enforcement, cycle count accuracy); labor model capture (task-time studies with Drew, cost rollup on BOMs — current blocker for Move 5A BOM push); BOM data integrity and cost visibility (reconcile Datahub product data with MRP BOM data, target full cost rollup).

Warehouse Priorities

Inventory Integrity

Perpetual inventory accuracy, cycle counting discipline, stock-level reconciliation between MRP and physical warehouse. The foundation everything else builds on.

Knowledge Harvest — Before June 12

Brian departs June 12. MRP bug patterns, real BOMs, and failure modes must be captured before departure. Dan absorbs warehouse ownership; MRP automation handles routine tasks.

BOM Accuracy

49% late-MO rate traces to BOM data quality. Systematic audit of 516 BOMs, yield assumptions, UoM consistency. At 78% all products / 86% active. Labor model unblock is the remaining dependency.

Strategy

Strategic Plan

Three paths — Hold, eight-figure exit, nine-figure breakout. What each requires, and how the near-term work keeps every option open through 2027.