Net Revenue Basis (v7): All figures use P&L-compatible net revenue. Amazon net ≈ 56.3% of gross (after referral, FBA, returns, sales tax — ad spend carved out as separate line). Shopify net ≈ 92% of gross (after merchant fees, returns, sales tax). Klaviyo attribution also net (× 0.92).
Klaviyo Attribution Scenarios: Platforms overclaim credit by 40–70% in aggregate. Conservative = 100% of Klaviyo is owned; Moderate = 50% owned (recommended); Aggressive = 35% owned. Use Moderate as working assumption until holdout test confirms.
Amazon Ad Spend — Carved Out: The P&L embeds Amazon ad costs (~$105K/yr) inside "Amazon Fees - Other" as a deduction from gross revenue. To enable correlation analysis, we removed ad spend from the net factor (raising it from 0.46 → 0.563) and added it as a separate spend line. Total spend = Meta + Google + Amazon Ads. ⚠ 2024 Amazon ad values are estimated* from the 2025 monthly average ($8,778/mo) — actual 2024 data unavailable due to Amazon reporting limitations.
⚠ Bad Agency Period Excluded (May 6 – Jul 1, 2024): A temporary hire ran unsanctioned spend strategies during these 9 weeks. Meta spend peaked at 446% above normal, MER hit 55%. These weeks are shown on charts (shaded red) but excluded from all trend calculations, seasonal baselines, and averages. Pre/post-agency data is used to interpolate normal patterns for this period.
Data Notes: Google spend anomalies (Mar 2025 testing noise, Sep 2024 sloppy management) excluded from Google trends. Apr 22 '24 & Aug 11 '25 Shopify spikes = confirmed launches + price increases. BFCM '24 Klaviyo 53% = real loyal-customer email response. Dec 29 '25 = partial holiday week, excluded. Oct 6 '25 Klaviyo at 2.6% = under investigation.
Weekly Ad Spend as % of Net Revenue — Three Attribution Scenarios
Higher = less efficient. Toggle scenarios below. Solid line = selected scenario. Dashed = blended (all net revenue, no Klaviyo adjustment).
Conservative (100% owned)
Moderate (50% owned) ★
Aggressive (35% owned)
Weekly MER Ratio (Net Revenue ÷ Spend)
Same data, ratio view. Blue = blended, red = paid (moderate scenario).
Klaviyo % of Shopify Revenue
Email attribution share over time (gross basis — ratio unchanged). Median ~30%.
Weekly Net Revenue Breakdown: Paid Shopify / Klaviyo / Amazon
Stacked net revenue with total spend inverted below axis. Moderate scenario (50% Klaviyo = owned).
Spend vs. Spend-as-%-of-Paid-Net-Revenue
Does spending more compress efficiency? Blue = 2024, green = 2025. Moderate scenario.
Spend vs. Paid Net Revenue
Revenue elasticity to spend. Moderate scenario.
Monthly Summary — Moderate Scenario (50% Klaviyo = Owned) — Net Revenue
Spend % = primary metric. MER ratio shown for reference. All revenue figures net of fees/returns/tax.
| Month | Net Rev | Klaviyo Net | Owned (50%) | Paid Net Rev |
Meta | Google | Amazon Ads | Total Spend |
Spend % (all) | Spend % (paid) | MER (paid) | Posture |
Annual Summary — All Three Scenarios — Net Revenue
Side-by-side comparison of attribution assumptions on a net revenue basis.
| Year | Net Rev | Total Spend |
Conservative (100%) | Moderate (50%) | Aggressive (35%) |
| | |
Spend % | MER | Spend % | MER | Spend % | MER |
|---|
Gross vs. Net Revenue Comparison
Impact of net revenue conversion on efficiency metrics (moderate scenario).
| Year | Gross Rev | Net Rev | Net/Gross % |
Gross Spend % | Net Spend % | Δ Spend % |
Refinement Backlog
Ordered by impact.
| Item | Status | Impact |
|---|
| Amazon Advertising spend | Carved out of net factor (0.46 → 0.563); now separate spend line | Enables correlation analysis. 2024 estimated* from 2025 avg. |
| P&L / Contribution margin → MER floor | File uploaded, ready to parse | Sets break-even spend % ceiling |
| Klaviyo holdout test (90-day) | Recommended — free via Klaviyo | Definitively answers email incrementality |
| Klaviyo campaign attribution | Integrated (3 scenarios) | Done |
| Net revenue conversion | Applied (Amazon ×0.563, Shopify ×0.92) | Done — P&L compatible (ad spend carved out) |
| Klaviyo flow revenue (non-campaign) | Not yet exported | Flows likely add more owned revenue |
| SMS channel attribution | Not in current export | May be small |
| New vs. returning customer split | Needs Shopify customer export | True acquisition spend % |
| Agency transition timeline | Identified: May 6 – Jul 1, 2024. Bad hire, crazy spend. 9 weeks excluded. | Resolved — data carved out, trends recalculated |
| Stockout dates by SKU | Pending | Explains spend % spikes when constrained |
| Fragrance-age segmented analysis | Possible with existing data | Investment vs harvest by SKU age |
| COGS by SKU/channel | Pending | Margin-adjusted analysis |
| March 2025 Google spend ($1.3K) | Confirmed: testing noise. Excluded from Google trend analysis. | Resolved |