| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total unique customers | 86,748 |
| Repeat customers (2+ orders) | 25,301 (29.2%) |
| One-time customers | 61,447 (70.8%) |
| 3+ order customers | 12,594 (14.5%) |
| 5+ order customers | 4,769 (5.5%) |
| 10+ order customers | 903 (1.0%) |
The distribution follows a classic long tail: 71% of customers never return, but the ones who do tend to keep buying. Of your repeat customers, nearly half (12,594 of 25,301) have placed 3 or more orders — that's strong engagement depth.
Repeat customers represent 29% of your customer base but generate 63.5% of revenue ($5.1M of $8.0M). The top 10% of customers drive 42% of all revenue. This level of concentration is typical for DTC but underscores how critical retention is to unit economics.
| Segment | Customers | Revenue | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Repeat (2+ orders) | 25,301 | $5,095,940 | 63.5% |
| One-time | 61,447 | $2,933,147 | 36.5% |
Repeat customers also have higher AOV ($55.11) compared to one-time buyers ($47.73), which compounds the revenue impact.
| Year | Customers | Within-Year Repeat Rate | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 30,680 | 24.7% | $2.06M |
| 2024 | 34,012 | 23.5% | $2.57M |
| 2025 | 37,274 | 23.4% | $3.12M |
The within-year repeat rate has been stable at 23–25% but is not improving. Revenue growth is being driven primarily by customer acquisition volume, not by getting more customers to reorder.
| Period | Year 1 Customers | Returned in Year 2 | Retention Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 → 2024 | 30,680 | 7,284 | 23.7% |
| 2024 → 2025 | 34,012 | 8,638 | 25.4% |
Roughly 1 in 4 customers returns the following year. This is decent for fragrance (which benchmarks at ~17% retention) but leaves significant room for improvement compared to top-performing DTC brands in adjacent categories.
| Benchmark | Rate | Source |
|---|---|---|
| General ecommerce repeat rate | 25–30% | Industry wide |
| Beauty category | 20–26% | Bluecore, Metrilo |
| DTC Fragrance retention | ~16.7% | Metrilo |
| Best-in-class DTC (loyalty/subscription) | 40%+ | Various |
| Pet supplies (Chewy-like) | 30%+ with 82% subscription revenue | Industry data |
Grow at 29.2% is nearly double the fragrance industry benchmark of ~17%. This is a genuine competitive advantage and suggests the product resonates. However, compared to the broader ecommerce average (25–30%), Grow is at the midpoint — not yet at the upper end where the most profitable DTC brands operate.
What "good" looks like for profitability: DTC brands typically need repeat rates above 30–35% to achieve healthy unit economics, because customer acquisition costs (CAC) in digital advertising continue to rise. Brands like Dollar Shave Club, Chewy, and Athletic Greens pushed into the 40–60% repeat range through subscription models. For a home fragrance brand, getting above 35% would be strong; 40%+ would be exceptional.
Sober assessment: Grow is in a healthy middle ground — clearly outperforming fragrance peers, but not yet at the level where retention alone drives profitability without heavy reinvestment in acquisition. The ~71% one-time rate means you're spending to acquire customers who, more often than not, don't generate a second transaction.
Looking at cohort retention over time, the pattern is consistent across cohorts:
The steepest drop-off happens in months 1–3. If a customer doesn't reorder within 90 days, the probability of them ever returning drops sharply. This has direct implications for post-purchase marketing windows.
| Window | % of Repurchases | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|
| Within 30 days | 21.8% | 21.8% |
| 31–60 days | 15.6% | 37.4% |
| 61–90 days | 13.7% | 51.1% |
| 91–180 days | 22.0% | 73.1% |
| 181–365 days | 17.8% | 90.9% |
| 365+ days | 9.1% | 100% |
Key insight: Over half of all repeat purchases (51%) happen within 90 days. The median time between orders is 88 days. This means the critical marketing window is 30–90 days post-purchase. If you aren't running aggressive email/SMS flows in this window, you're leaving the most convertible segment on the table.
| Category | Revenue | Share | Repeat Customer % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Air + Fabric Spray | $4,320,725 | 54.3% | 32.4% |
| Candle | $2,084,276 | 26.2% | 44.9% |
| Car Fragrance | $631,164 | 7.9% | 47.5% |
| Gift Set / Bundle | $556,961 | 7.0% | 44.3% |
| Other | $365,474 | 4.6% | 47.1% |
The paradox: Sprays are your revenue engine but have the lowest repeat customer concentration (32.4%). Candles and Car Fragrances attract much stickier customers (45–48% repeat). This likely reflects the spray's role as a gateway/trial product — easy entry point, but not enough inherent pull to drive reorders on its own.
| Category (First Order) | Repeat Conversion Rate |
|---|---|
| Other | 35.7% |
| Candle | 33.4% |
| Air + Fabric Spray | 29.0% |
| Gift Set / Bundle | 27.4% |
| Car Fragrance | 27.2% |
Candle-first buyers convert to repeat at 33.4% — 4.4 percentage points higher than spray-first buyers (29.0%). This is a meaningful gap when applied to your customer volume.
Highest repeat-conversion gateway products (min 100 first-order customers):
Key pattern: Mix & match products dominate the top of this list. When customers self-select multiple scents on their first order, they convert to repeat at dramatically higher rates (50%+ vs. 10–30% for single-SKU purchases). Variety-seeking on the first order is a leading indicator of loyalty.
Lowest repeat-conversion gateway products (min 100 first-order customers):
These are some of your highest-volume products by acquisition (Pine Forest alone brought in 3,087 first-order customers), but they convert to repeat at abysmally low rates. The single-SKU spray purchased alone is functionally a "dead end" for the vast majority of buyers.
Among products with significant volume (200+ customers):
Candles uniformly appear in the highest-repeat tiers. They're the stickiest format.
Top fragrances by repeat customer percentage (with meaningful volume):
Fragrances with lowest repeat rates:
The single-SKU versions of your best-selling fragrances consistently underperform on repeat. The same fragrances in mix & match or candle format show much higher repeat rates.
Discount-acquired customers repeat at a 7.8pp higher rate. This doesn't necessarily mean discounts cause loyalty (there may be selection bias — discount seekers may be more intentional shoppers), but it does suggest your discount-driven acquisition is not producing "junk" customers. They're actually stickier.
These products earn their shelf space and should receive more marketing investment:
These have meaningful volume but are repeat "dead ends":
Your data shows 51% of repeat purchases happen within 90 days. The first 90 days after a purchase are your golden window. Recommended cadence:
If you don't have a robust post-purchase flow already, this alone could move your repeat rate by 3–5 percentage points.
The data is unambiguous: customers who buy mix & match bundles on their first order convert to repeat at 50–60%, vs. 10–30% for single-SKU purchases. Every customer you can get into a multi-scent first order is dramatically more likely to come back.
Your Everyday Favorites Discovery Set has 37% repeat customer rate and 37% gateway conversion. For a product whose purpose is literally to create repeat customers, this is underperforming. Compare it to mix & match bundles at 50%+. Either the set includes the wrong fragrances, the price point doesn't create commitment, or the post-purchase follow-up for set buyers needs work.
Candles have 33.4% gateway conversion (vs. 29% for sprays) and dramatically higher repeat customer concentration across the board. Consider cross-selling sprays → candles in the same fragrance after first purchase, featuring candles more prominently in retention emails, and building a "spray + candle" subscription pair.
Your "Insiders Program" shows 94.7% repeat rates (albeit small volume: 262 customers). Subscription is the single highest-impact lever for DTC repeat rates. Benchmark DTC brands get 40–80% of revenue from subscriptions. Grow should aim to get 15–20% of revenue into subscription within 12 months. Start with sprays (most obvious replenishment cycle).
3-Wick Candles across all fragrances show 15–17% gateway conversion — the worst of any format. At higher price points ($36+), these may be attracting gift buyers or impulse purchasers who aren't core Grow customers. Consider whether the 3-wick line is diluting your brand's repeat economics. Options: reduce SKU count, reposition as gifts with recipient-targeted follow-up, or phase out lower-performing fragrances in this format.
Pine Forest Air + Fabric Spray brings in the most first-order customers (3,087) but has a 6% gateway conversion rate — the lowest in your entire product line. If this is featured prominently in paid acquisition, you may be spending significant CAC on customers with almost no probability of returning. Either reposition Pine Forest in the product line or deprioritize it in acquisition channels.
With 4,769 customers who've placed 5+ orders and 903 who've placed 10+, you have a meaningful "superfan" base that isn't being formally recognized. A tiered loyalty program could both increase spend from this group and create aspirational targets that move 3–4x buyers into the 5+ tier.
| Detail | Value |
|---|---|
| Data source | 13 Shopify order export CSV files |
| Date range | December 22, 2022 – February 22, 2026 |
| Total raw rows | 403,545 (line-item level) |
| Paid orders analyzed | 149,619 |
| Unique customers (by email) | 86,748 |
All tabs and underlying data available in the accompanying Excel workbook.